Click over the slides to advance the presentation. You can go back or forward at any time using the [PgUp] and [PgDn] keys. Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] U$D/MT Alex CUNNINGHAM – alexcunn@gmail.com - http://areldorado.com/

Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/ Chinese Gum Rosin Export fob Price 1995 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price 1920 - 2008 We have been following the Gum Rosin export market for almost 30 years. In particular we have been following the Chinese Gum Rosin export market in recent years because it influences directly the Brazilian Gum Rosin export market. But in our analysis we go back to 1920. Let’s start to study in detail the last 5 years and then go back the last 13 years, periods in which the Gum Rosin export market was been driven by China. Chinese Gum Rosin Export fob Price 2003 - 2008 GUM ROSIN PRICE

GUM ROSIN PRICE Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT CHINA BRAZIL Brazilian and Chinese Gum Rosin export prices have been dancing a “tango” since mid 1990’s (when Brazil started to export volumes over 1,000 metric tons per month). This price situation has changed recently! BRAZILIAN vs. CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES 1995 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT BRAZILIAN vs. CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES 2003 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT MT BRAZILIAN vs. CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES AND VOLUMES 2003 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT MT Could this be possible? Let’s analyse a longer period of time. The last 13 years! BRAZILIAN vs. CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES AND VOLUMES 2003 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT MT Two periods of price inestability; with one period of stability in between. We are going to graph the 6 month running average for the volumes of Gum Rosin exported by China during these years. The running average should show more clearly any existing seasonal pattern. CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES AND VOLUMES 1995 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT MT Export volumes are more even in time of price stability than in time of price inestability. But this running average of Chinese export volumes show something more interesting ..... CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES AND VOLUMES 1995 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

? U$D/MT MT CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES AND VOLUMES 1995 - 2008 Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

U$D/MT MT CHINESE GUM ROSIN EXPORT FOB PRICES 2003 - 2008 Let’s go back to more recent years. We can observe that the volumes exported by China of gum rosin are lower in the last 12 months. Not considering June 2007 because a lot of gum rosin was ship that month before the VAT reimburstment was reduced; and February 2008 because of very bad winter weather along almost all China. But to understand what has been going on lately we have to introduce another export product ..... Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

MT CHINESE GUM ROSIN AND ROSIN RESINS EXPORTS 2003 - 2008 GUM ROSIN ROSIN RESINS Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

CHINESE GUM ROSIN AND ROSIN RESINS EXPORTS FOB PRICES 2003 - 2008 GUM ROSIN ROSIN RESINS HC RESINS U$D/MT Chinese Rosin Resins prices are more stable. And have been almost flat in the last two years. Chinese exports prices of low grade HC Resins have been fluctuating in between Gum Rosin and Rosin Resins prices. In February 2008, Rosin Resins and HC Resins fob prices were at U$D 1,385.00 per metric ton fob Chinese Port. Chines Gum Rosin in February 2008 was at U$D 865.00 per metric ton fob Chinese Port. Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

CHINESE GUM ROSIN AND ROSIN RESINS EXPORTS FOB PRICES 2003 - 2008 Gum Rosin Rosin Resins HC Resins U$D/MT MT Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

CHINESE GUM ROSIN AND ROSIN RESINS EXPORTS FOB PRICES 2003 - 2008 Gum Rosin Rosin Resins HC Resins Roughly since August 2006 the volumes of Chinese exports of Gum Rosin, Rosin Resins and HC Resins combined habe been in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 metric tons. We have not considered the peak in June 2007 (explained before) and distributed the excess quantities in the following months. In my opinion this combined volumes should bring price stability to gum rosin. U$D/MT MT Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

GUM ROSIN PRICE 1920 - 2008 The data to produce this curve is from three diferent sources. Each one representing the price of the product of the mayor producer at that time. From 1920 to 1950 data was obtaines from price lists USDA published for Gum Rosin in the american market. From 1950 to the 1980's we use data from the Naval Sotres book. For more recent time we used the data for Chinese Gum Rosin export informed by the CNCIC (see data sources at the end of the presentation). All these data was converted to 2005 US dollars. U$D/MT Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

GUM ROSIN PRICE 1920 - 2008 To illustrate the idea we want to desenvolve, we have produced the above graphic that shows a commodities index known as Knight Rider CBR. This graph we obtained from the website of the Di Tomasso Group show the Knight Rider CBR index. This index show the price fluctuation of a combined and equal weight basket of 17 commodities, including oil, grains, gold, aluminum, sugar and catle. Which where historical facts gave the curve that shape? The period between the First and Second World War, the growth of the USA after World War II, the growth of Japan in more recent times have been drivers of these supercycles.  More recently the Chinese and Indian developmente are showning the start of a new supercycle in the price of the commodities. Gum Rosin price should follow this trend? Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

GUM ROSIN PRICE 1920 - 2008 ... and now one over the other! U$D/MT In spite that this superposition has no mathematical rigor, it shows that Gum Rosin price moves as other commodities. For example: oil, grains, gold, aluminum, sugar and catle . Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

GUM ROSIN PRICE 1920 - 2008 U$D/MT In spite that this superposition has no mathematical rigor, it shows that Gum Rosin price moves as other commodities. For example: oil, grains, gold, aluminum, sugar and catle . Sources: BRAZIL: http://aliceweb.mdci.gov.br/ the Brazilian Customs Site. CHINA: http://www.chem.cn/ the China National Chemical Information Center (CNCIC) site with Chinese Customs export information. Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

GLOBAL ECONOMY 2008 RMB Euro R$ Currencies valuating versus the US Dolar. Home market crisis in the USA. Agflation moving up food prices around the World. Two digit inflation in China. Valuation of currencies vs. the US Dolar. Gum Rosin Price – Some Interesting Trends ... #36-en [31-mar-2008] – Alex CUNNINGHAM – http://areldorado.com/

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