CLIMATE SCIENCE AND IMPACTS SESSION 4 + 5

What do we know about climate change?

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT 1. CO2 and other greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun in our atmosphere.

Before the Industrial Revolution, for thousands of years, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere was at 287ppm

Now, after three centuries of burning coal, oil, and gas, we're at 390ppm – that’s above any levels we’ve seen in recorded history.

2. We also know that CO2 influences global temperature CO2 in PPM GLOBAL TEMPERATURE Years ago Parts per Million CO2 TODAY: 390ppm 550ppm? More? EARLY 1900S LAST ICE AGE Where we’ll be mid-century if we keep this up look how the temperature line follows CO2 concentrations throughout history

The most startling evidence yet…

is the MELTING OF THE ARCTIC. New predictions Satellite observations Mean IPCC prediction Most likely change (melt) IPCC range Actual observed melting it has melted nearly 80 YEARS ahead of when scientists predicted YEAR % change in ice cover

“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 387ppm to at most 350ppm.” - NASA climatologist Dr. James E. Hansen, 2008

CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WE’RE HERE: 390 WE NEED TO BE HERE: 350 PARTS PER MILLION CO2 YEAR

The largest research project in history: In 1988, the IPCC was created to “provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change”

NEW REPORTS EVERY 4 YEARS SCIENTISTS

WON THE NOBEL PRIZE IN 2007 WITH AL GORE

We have warmed our planet more than 1°C and are already observing major impacts and changes in our climate.

Do we really want to see what happens if we keep going? We will face increasingly severe impacts like…

GLACIERS ARE MELTING

MUIR & RIGGS GLACIER 1941

MUIR & RIGGS GLACIER 2004

PEDERSEN GLACIER, AK 1920

PEDERSEN GLACIER, AK 2005

SEA LEVELS ARE RISING Three Year Average Satellite Altimetry Year Sea Level Change (cm)

OCEANS ARE ACIDIFYING

Coral reefs are bleaching

WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE EXTREME

Australia suffers worst drought in 1,000 years “ ” - Guardian UK, Nov 7, 2008

U.S. dealing with Katrina’s wrath as death toll soars. “ ” - International Herald Tribune, August 31, 2005

MAJOR FLOODS PER DECADE number of major floods per decade

And now we’re seeing the results - we can see that measurable, recorded impacts are happening now all around us. Chapare, Bolivia

Lahore, Pakistan

Small islands are sinking or eroding

“Rapid Warming’ Spreads Havoc in Canada’s Forests. “ ” - Washington Post, March 1, 2006

Australia fires spark calls for CLIMATE ACTION “ ” - Washington Post, March 1, 2006

Moscow, Russia

the disappearance of SMALL ISLANDS

severely impacted LOCAL ECONOMIES

The most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change warns that global warming could inflict worldwide disruption as great as that caused by the two World Wars and the Great Depression. “ ” - Environmental News Service STERN REVIEW, 2006

The world has never faced such a predictably massive threat to food production as that posed by the melting mountain glaciers of Asia “ ” - Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute, Author of Plan B THE DISRUPTION OF FOOD PRODUCTION

Climate change could force 1 BILLION from their homes by 2050. “ ” - April 30, 2008, The Independent. A HUMAN RIGHTS CRISIS AND INSTABILITY

WHAT ARE SOME CLIMATE IMPACTS IN YOUR COUNTRIES?

CLIMATE POLITICS SESSION 6

UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was created at the Rio Earth Summit COPENHAGEN RIO

KYOTO PROTOCOL 1997 Ratified Treaty Didn’t Ratify Signed, Ratification Pending No Position

Each year there is a two-week Conference of the Parties (COP) to discuss the terms of the Kyoto Treaty COP 12 Montreal, Canada 2005

DECEMBER 2009 2009’s COP in Copenhagen was important. The Kyoto Protocol’s first term ends in 2012, and governments were supposed to agree to new terms for a treaty in Copenhagen.

we learned a few things in Copenhagen…

…there is an enormous citizen’s movement around the world…

…that included tens of thousands inside the conference center, hundreds of thousands outside,…

…and hundreds of thousands more taking action in solidarity around the world.

There are real government champions too, like President Nasheed of the Maldives.

In fact, 117 of the most vulnerable island and African nations were supporting 350ppm, saying it is 'necessary for their survival’,

…yet they were not the 117 that have the power. The biggest, most powerful emitters were not ready to really take action.

At the end of the conference, despite a lot of pressure, the rich countries refused to commit to what scientific findings indicate is necessary… so what next?

WHERE DOES YOUR COUNTRY STAND?

SOLUTIONS SESSION 7

so how do we get back to 350ppm and avoid climate catastrophe?

IT’S DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF WE START NOW.

IT MEANS PUTTING UP WIND TURBINES INSTEAD OF COAL PLANTS

IT MEANS PLANTING TREES INSTEAD OF CLEAR-CUTTING RAINFORESTS

AND IMPLEMENTING A THOUSAND DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS

that can create new jobs

And make our communities HEALTHIER

PARTS PER MILLION CO2 YEAR Phaseout of coal by 2030 Improved forestry and soil Reduced oil/gas use GETTING TO 350 *Graph from Dr. James Hansen’s paper on 350ppm. See sources.

According to Jim Hansen and other scientists the main things we need to do right away are: Stop coal use by 2030 Improve agricultural and forestry practices Dramatically reduce the use of all other fossil fuels If we manage to accomplish these things, we could get back to 350ppm by mid-century

64 64 BY TAKING ACTION, WE CAN CALL ON OUR LEADERS TO MAKE THESE CHANGES

AND PROVIDE AN EXAMPLE OF HOW OUR COMMUNITIES COULD BE IN A WORLD AT 350PPM

WHAT ARE SOME CLIMATE SOLUTIONS IN YOUR COMMUNITY?