Rohde, R. A. (2007, June 11). Image: Solar Spectrum.png. Retrieved October 3, 2008 from Global Warming Art: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Spectrum_png

Rohde, R. A. (2007, June 11). Image: Atmospheric Absorption Bands. Retrieved October 3, 2008, from Global Warming Art: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Absorption_Bands_png

Kunzig, R. (2008, June 22). Proof Positive. National Geographic Special Report: Changing Climate , p. 30.

Rohde, R. A. (2007, June 11). Image: Atmosphere Transmission Blackbody Only.png. Retrieved October 3, 2008, from Global Warming Art: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmosphere_Transmission_Blackbody_Only_png

Houghton, J. (2004). Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, third edition. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Weart, S. (n.d.). The Discovery of Global Warming. Retrieved May 25, 2008, from The American Institute of Physics: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/

Revelle, R., & Suess, H. (1957). Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during the past decades. Tellus , 18-27.

NOAA. (n.d.). Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa. Retrieved May 25, 2008, from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

Weart, S. (n.d.). The Discovery of Global Warming. Retrieved May 25, 2008, from The American Institute of Physics: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/

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Hansen, J. (1988, June 23). Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change: Oral Testimony of James Hansen. Hearing before the Committe on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundredth Congress: First Session on the Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, Part 2 . Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Hansen, J., I., F., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., et al. (1988). Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model. Journal of Geophysical Research , 9341-9364.

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Primer and history Global warming explained The Global Warming Debate part 1 Email comments or corrections to cce1976@gmail.com Supporting information located at http://cce.890m.com Click Play Button To Begin

To clarify . . . All temperatures in Celsius 0 °C is the freezing point of water 100 °C is the boiling point of water 1 Celsius degree = 1.8 Fahrenheit degrees

It’s all about energy Energy from the Sun Infrared Visible light (small amount of ultraviolet) Radiation! Infrared has “long” wavelength Too long to see Can be felt as heat

Solar Radiation Spectrum

Atmospheric Absorption Bands

Energy path

Radiation transmitted by the amosphere

The Greenhouse Effect: Bad name, good thing (but not too good) “Real” greenhouses physically trap heat Average surface air temperature is 14 ° No greenhouse effect: 33 degrees cooler (-19 ° average) Blistering days Freezing nights

Leave it to beavers ~200 years of greenhouse gas emissions Fossil fuels Land use changes (deforestation) Bigger dam means a bigger pond More energy entering than leaving New equilibrium? Feedbacks

Forcing or feedback? Outside influences on the climate – “forcings” Human (greenhouse gases) Natural (solar and volcanoes) Feedbacks Water vapor Ice albedo See section 12

Early pioneers 1827 – (Jean Baptiste) Joseph Fourier “The Greenhouse Effect” 1860 – John Tyndall Infrared absorption of CO2 and water vapor 1896 – Svante Arrhenius Doubled CO2 = 5 - 6 ° temperature rise i.e. “climate sensitivity” 1922 – Lewis Fry Richardson First numerical model of the weather

Laying the foundation Greenhouse effect saturated? Lewis Kaplan (1952) and Gilbert Plass (1956) CO2 increase most important at high elevations Little water vapor Less overlap of absorption bands 1957 – Roger Revelle & Hans Suess The ocean carbon sink?

Revelle and Suess (1957) “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in the sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years. This experiment, if adequately documented, may yield a far-reaching insight into the processes determining the weather and climate.”

Documenting CO2 1957 – Charles David Keeling

The models cometh 1967 – Syukuro “Suki” Manabe and Richard Wetherald Climate sensitivity of 2.3 °C for doubled CO2 1969 – Manabe and Kirk Bryan First atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) 1975 – Manabe and Bryan model approximates Earth’s geography See section 8 for more on models

Global warming goes mainstream 1979 – National Academy of Sciences (NAS) “The Charney Report” “a global surface warming of between 2 °C and 3.5 °C.” No significant negative feedbacks “thermal inertia of the ocean” will delay committed warming

Doctor Hansen goes to Washington 1988 – James Hansen testimony “99% certain” global warming is here. See section 9 for more on Hansen’s scenarios

IPCC is formed 1988 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1990 – First Assessment Report (FAR) 1995 – Second Assessment Report (SAR) 2001 – Third Assessment Report (TAR) 2007 – Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

Measuring the past Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) 1989 – 1991 3000 meter ice core 200,000 years of climatic data

Blame it on Rio 1992 – “Earth Summit” in Rio De Janeiro UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” See section 11 & 12 for more on what might constitute “dangerous anthropogenic interference”

The Kyoto Protocol 1997 – Kyoto, Japan Signatories agree to cut emissions 5% below 1990 levels Some more some less Developing countries exempt

US Senate rejects Kyoto 1997 – “No to Kyoto” if developing nations exempted “Unfair to US economy” See section 13 for more on developed vs. developing nations

National Research Council report 2001 – 2nd Bush Administration requests NRC report “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising.”

The US withdraws from Kyoto 2001 – The US ignores IPCC and NAS reports Australia ratifies in 2007 US alone

Europe begins emissions trading 2005 – European Emissions Trading System (ETS) Based on US sulfur dioxide “cap and trade” system Carbon credits misallocated Prices reset in 2008 See section 13 for more on cap and trade and other economic measures

The end of Kyoto 2012 – Kyoto expires Replacement?

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