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The scientific consensus Who believes what? The Global Warming Debate part 2 Click Play Button To Begin Email comments or corrections to cce1976@gmail.com Supporting information located at http://cce.890m.com Click “cc” button for citations

The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) – The Physical Science Basis Working Group II (WGII) – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities Working Group III (WGIII) – Mitigation of Climate Change Syntheses

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Working Group I 619 coordinating lead authors, lead authors, and contributing authors “reviewers” are not required to be “experts” 30,000 comments

Summary for policymakers Consensus documents Conservative! Governments and scientists must approve SPM “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% probability) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

Consensus census American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) American Chemical Society (ACS) American Geophysical Union (AGU) American Meteorological Society (AMS) Geological Society of America (GSA) Science Academies of the G8+5 Nations

Science Academy signatures

Progression of skeptics Warming? Human caused? Dangerous? Adapt!

Think tank roundup Competitive Enterprise Institute George Marshall Institute Cato Institute Heartland Institute American Enterprise Institute . . . and the rest!

Turning the tables (and then turning them back) Industry shills ? Greedy scientists! How much is the climate worth?

A cottage industry Industry support dwindling But no shortage of opinion Books TV Appearances Newspaper Op-Eds International conferences!

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate Summary for Policymakers of the Report† of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change* †Nonexistent *621 authors ~1000 pages One hand too many ?

The Oregon Petition A few lists Leipzig Declaration Inhofe 400 Manhattan Declaration Oregon Petition (1998) Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (OISM) Arthur B. Robinson 2 sons 2 dead 3 others Frederick Seitz cover letter

“Review of information on the subject of global warming” 1998 paper Robinson (biochemist) Baliunas & Soon (astrophysicists) Zachary Robinson Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences? (No) 2007 paper Drops Baliunas Swaps Zachary for Noah Robinson Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons

“Virtually every scientist in every field got it.” 17,000 signatures (1998) 14,000 signatures (2007) 10 million with scientific degrees in US 500,000 Ph.D.s Persistence pays off

31,072 scientists

Atmospheric, Earth, & Environmental Scientists

Atmospheric scientists

Scientific American survey

A tobacco interlude Frederick Seitz National Academy of Sciences President (1962-1969) Rockefeller University Hired by the Tobacco Industry in 1979 $45 million

“Free rein” “For his part, Seitz says he was comfortable taking tobacco money, ‘as long as it was green. I’m not quite clear about this moralistic issue. We had absolutely free rein to decide how the money was spent.’ Did the research give the tobacco industry political cover? ‘I’ll leave that to the philosophers and priests,’ he replies.” “They didn’t want us looking at the health effects of cigarette smoking.”

The public campaign

The search for the “true causes of cancer”

The road to Oregon George Marshall Institute (est. 1984) Oregon Petition (1998 & 2007) Ozone depletion and “2nd hand smoke” too!

The Oreskes survey Naomi Oreskes Professor of history and science studies B.S. in mining geology Ph.D. in geological research and the history of science 928 abstracts (1993-2003) 75% explicitly or implicitly endorsed consensus 25% no position None rejected consensus

The Peiser survey Benny Peiser Social anthropologist Letter to Science Searched all documents and databases 34 articles “reject or doubt” consensus Only one met his revised criteria “I have publicly withdrawn this point of my critique” American Association of Petroleum Geologists “overwhelming majority of climatologists” agree with consensus

The Schulte survey Klaus-Martin Schulte Endocrinologist Same papers from rejected Peiser letter Energy and Environment (E&E) Peiser on editorial board Political scientist editor “a bit patchy and nothing new”

“Less than half of all published scientists endorse global warming theory” “By contrast [to the IPCC’s authors], the ISI Web of Science database covers 8,700 journals and publications, including every leading scientific journal in the world!” . . . but not E&E

Consensus ≠ science True! But . . . Policy is done by consensus! “Hope for the best, but . . . how does that go again?”

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