The Myth of Asia’s Miracle - Krugman & Productivity

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The Myth of Asia’s Miracle Paul Krugman, Princeton U. & London School of Economics

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Asian Growth is Unsustainable Growth was achieved by increasing inputs of machinery, infrastructure, and education, much like Soviet Union Growth rates will slow down Only possibility for sustained growth is through efficiency gains, which require painful choices c Prof. S. S. Levine

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What is Productivity? Measures how much output is produced relative to the inputs of labour, capital (plant and equipment) and technology. An increase in productivity implies that more output can be produced with the same (or less) inputs. Multifactor productivity (MFP) is a broader indicator…A change in MFP reflects the change in output that cannot be accounted for by the change in combined inputs…measures the effects of changes such as technological progress, changes in the organisation of production, worker-management relations, etc. Source: Statistics Singapore, Glossary of Economic Terms and Definitions c Prof. S. S. Levine

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c Prof. S. S. Levine Annualized Growth Rates of GDP and Productivity, 1980-2000 (in percent)

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c Prof. S. S. Levine Comparison of Productivity Performance (three year moving average)

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c Prof. S. S. Levine Annualised GDP and Productivity Growth Rates, 1990-2000

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c Prof. S. S. Levine Total Output , hourly compensation, unit labor costs, and related measures Manufacturing 1979-2008 Average annual rates of change

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c Prof. S. S. Levine Output per hour, hourly compensation, unit labor costs, and related measures Manufacturing 1979-2008 Average annual rates of change

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“Manufacturing labor productivity decreased in 2008 in 12 of the 17 economies […] The Republic of Korea and the United States had the largest productivity increases (1.2 percent each) among the five economies where productivity increased. Singapore had the steepest productivity decline (-6.6 percent)” Source: International Comparison of Manufacturing Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Trends, Oct. 2009 c Prof. S. S. Levine

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“Singapore (+3.6 percent) and Norway (+0.2 percent) were the only two countries that experienced growth in total manufacturing hours worked over the 2000-2008 period” Source: International Comparison of Manufacturing Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Trends News Release, Oct. 2009 c Prof. S. S. Levine

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c Prof. S. S. Levine Weekly Hours of Work 2007–2008/Q1 2009

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Trends in Labour Productivity by Industry c Prof. S. S. Levine

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c Prof. S. S. Levine “Busy, Busy, Very Busy”

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You Know You Are Productive When… You sleep at eight hours per night, every night You enjoy play without feeling guilty You are not interrupted by “urgent” matters You spend time talking to people, not sending them messages You know exactly what you plan to achieve today, and every other day c Prof. S. S. Levine

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Do one thing at a time, and do it well Set up quite time for focusing; Plan your interruptions (email, phone, IM) Have agenda for every meeting Focus on quality, not speed c Prof. S. S. Levine

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