3. A New Ice Age (The Global Warming Debate)

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Slide 3

Gwynne, P. (1975, April 28). The Cooling World. Newsweek , p. 64.

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Mathews, S. W. (1976, November). What’s happening to our climate? National Geographic, pp. 576-615.

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Peterson, T. C., Connolley, W. M., & Fleck, J. (2008, September). The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 1325-1337.

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NASA GISS. (2008, January 11). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Analysis Graphs and Plots. Retrieved June 1, 2008, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs

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Charney, J. G., Arakawa, A., James, B. D., Bolin, B., Dickinson, R. E., Goody, C. E., et al. (1979). Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate. Washington D.C.: National Academy of Sciences. IPCC. (2007). Summary for Policymakers. In S. Solomon, Qin. D., M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, et al. (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1-18). Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Manabe, S., & Wetherald, R. T. (1967). Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 24 (3), 241-259. Rasool, S. I., & Schneider, S. H. (1971). Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate. Science , 138-141. Schneider, S. H. (1975). On the Carbon Dioxide-Climate Confusion. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 32, 2060-2066.

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Mitchell, J. M. (1970). A preliminary evaluation of atmospheric pollution as a cause of the global temperature fluctuation of the past century. Global Effects of Environmental Pollution (pp. 139-154). New York: Springer-Verlag. Stern, D. I. (2005). Global Sulfur Emissions from 1850 to 2000. Chemosphere , 163-175.

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Mitchell, J. M. (1972). The natural breakdown of the present interglacial and its possible intervention by human activities. Quaternary Research , 436-445.

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Singer, S. F. (1998, May 5). Scientists add to heat over global warming. Retrieved June 1, 2008, from Science & Environmental Policy Project (Reprinting Washington Times commentary): http://www.sepp.org/key%20issues/glwarm/sciaddheat.html

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National Academy of Sciences. (1975). Understanding Climate Change: A Program for Action. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences.

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Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., & Shackleton, N. (1976). Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages. Science , 1121-1132. Will, G. F. (2006, April 2). Let Cooler Heads Prevail. Retrieved June 1, 2008, from The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/31/AR2006033101707.html

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Geophysics Study Committee, Geophysics Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council. (1977). Energy and Climate: Studies in Geophysics. Washington DC: National Academy of Sciences.

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Singer, S. F. (1970). Epilogue. Global Effects of Environmental Pollution (pp. 205-206). New York: Springer-Verlag.

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A New Ice age Saturday Night Fever or Saturday Night Shiver? The Global Warming Debate part 3 Click Play Button To Begin Email comments or corrections to cce1976@gmail.com Supporting information located at http://cce.890m.com Click “cc” button for citations

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Two concerns Aerosols Small particles (particulates) Natural – dust & volcanoes Manmade – “pollution” Natural end to interglacial Milankovitch cycles Shape of orbit Tilt Wobble See section 7 for more on Milankovitch Cycles

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“The Cooling World” Applies to both cooling and warming! Which will dominate? When and how rapidly will current warm period come to an end?

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More accurately . . .

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The state of the science

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Why “cooling”? See section 4 for more on the temperature record

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The skeptics’ best shot

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J. Murray Mitchell vs. Rasool & Schneider

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J. Murray Mitchell vs. Rasool & Schneider, part 2 See section 1 for more on Suki Manabe

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Wither aerosols? Aerosols did contribute to mid-century cooling Aerosols are short lived CO2 has a cumulative and long lasting effect on climate Reducing aerosol emissions makes global warming worse See section 13 for more on the “aerosol paradox” See section 14 for potential solutions See section 7

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S. Fred Singer and the “hysterical fears” of the NAS “There, in 1975, the NAS ‘experts’ exhibited the same hysterical fears-this time, however, asserting a ‘finite possibility that a serious worldwide cooling could befall the Earth within the next 100 years.’”

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Understanding Climatic Change

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Pacemaker of the ice ages George F. Will “extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation”

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The verdict See section 1 for more on the Charney Report

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Parting advice from a young(er) S. Fred Singer

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(hyperlink) Return to The Global Warming Debate website

Summary: One particular attack on the consensus requires its own section. If you have ever seen a debate about global warming on one of the popular talk shows, you have probably heard someone proclaim, “Scientists were predicting a new ice age in the ‘70s. Why should we believe them now?”

Tags: aerosols milankovitch cycles schneider mitchell singer hays

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