Star Trek Analytics - The Next Generation

0

No comments posted yet

Comments

Slide 1

“Marketing Science” is a relatively new term, at least in how it applies to marketing agencies and digital measurement. Because of this, and the fact that digital analytics in general isn’t deeply ingrained yet in many agencies or even in our clients, I’m often asked to explain what myself and my team do. So, what is Marketing Science?

Slide 2

Marketing Science is the application of a wide variety of measurement methods in order to determine how well a marketing initiative worked. No matter how “sexy” a campaign is, it also has to be able to deliver the goods, whatever those happen to be.

Slide 3

We are web analytics, but we aren’t only web analytics. Web analytics systems like Omniture, WebTrends and Google Analytics form a core component of the data we use, but sometimes this is only part of the picture. Social networks, ad servers, databases, CRMs, Point of Sale systems and data warehouses can all provide more information that helps us, the Humans in this picture, understand what’s going on. From there, we use the data not only to determine whether something worked or not, but more importantly how could we improve it through optimization. We can also use it to deliver more relevant customized content, or improve a website’s experience. In the end though, the executives at the companies want to know how we can help them reduce costs and improve sales. Wondering how we can do this?

Slide 4

Let’s have a look at a hypothetical example of how data can generate recommendations that could save not only costs, but lives! Disclaimer: The analysts I’ve met tend to like science fiction. If you don’t, I apologize in advance, because this is about to be boring for you.

Slide 5

Boldly going where no-one has gone before has a lot of associated costs, not the least of which is death. Training an officer costs a lot, and replacing them if they get killed can be even more expensive. Death benefits alone can skyrocket, not to mention damage to crew morale and efficiency. Fortunately, Starfleet records a great deal of data regarding this topic, and we can use it to develop some recommendations for improvement.

Slide 6

Shockingly, I’m not the first analyst to dig in to Star Trek deaths. Yes that was sarcasm. It was a well accepted fact that wearing a “red shirt” from The Original Series of Star Trek was basically like wearing a target on your back. Chances were that if you beamed down with Kirk, Spock and McCoy, you’re not making it home.

Slide 7

In 2008, Matt Bailey of SiteLogic Marketing provided us with a deep dive into the data around red shirt survivability. This was a great analysis, and although I’ve never met Matt, if and when I do I’ll be offering him up a Vulcan salute for his work. Matt’s point about using infographics to communicate data is well taken. This graphic provides an excellent overall view and proves that you can replace multiple boring powerpoint slides with one cool easy-to-understand image to communicate patterns and conclusions. Awesome for Admirals, but sometimes the Lieutenants needs more detailed information and yes, sometimes that means powerpoints… like this one. All that being said, Matt only looked at The Original Series, and related deaths to shirt colour, fights, and Kirk’s “love conquests”. As such, I wondered if there was more data to look at, or if the recommendations that Matt had made actually had actionable impact. Reference: http://www.sitelogicmarketing.com/blog/02-analytics-according-to-captain-kirk

Slide 8

Here’s Matt’s conclusions. Basically, “red shirts” lived more often if Kirk got a little something-something.

Slide 9

Like any great analysis, Matt not only presented the data, he also presented recommendations for improvement. However, I’m not sure they’re realistic. (Yes, I get it, it was supposed to be fun, but don’t mess with Trek if you can’t back it up!) So, let’s look at these one by one and evaluate them for realism (ha ha) and ease of implementation. First: Stop beaming down to planets

Slide 10

Really? That might seriously curtail Starfleet operations, no planets means no... anything!… and we never would gotten to see Stewie beam in the entire cast. What’s worse though..

Slide 11

you’d be stuck with crappy space energy aliens if you never beamed down anywhere. (Nagilum)

Slide 12

So clearly, not beaming down... Not an option. Only visit peaceful people The problem here is that often they SEEM peaceful

Slide 13

, but turn out to be quite nasty... Star trek lesson here... Don’t be afraid to steal other science fiction franchise ideas, much like I stole Matt Bailey’s analysis idea.

Slide 14

Ok, so hard to know sometimes if we’re visiting peaceful or aggressive people. So how about.. Change the shirt colour?

Slide 15

Well, yes, in fact they DID change the shirt colour, from red to gold! And as we’ll see later, it actually had an effect on death rates!

Slide 16

Sweet, Starfleet changed the shirt colour. How about Stop fighting?

Slide 17

Oh thats just not going to happen... Yes in a perfect universe of love and harmony this would be possible, but there’s a reason Starfleet vessels have phasers and torpedos.

Slide 18

So, in the end, recommendations have to not only be effective, but realistic within the confines of the organization and the environment in which it operates. They also should take into account all available data to avoid jumping to conclusions. With those points in mind, we’ve had a second look. We’ve expanded the data set to include many other things like demographics (species), the captain in charge, any wars or conflicts going on and even the “quality” of death (dying in a ship accident isn’t nearly as valuable as dying to save the galaxy). We’ve also expanded the timeline to include all the TV shows, The Original Series, The Next Generation, Deep Space Nine, Voyager, and Enterprise. For the sticklers in the crowd, the newest movie is NOT included, mostly due to the fact that it creates a separate timeline, and that just messes things up. Ok, I tend to find it more effective to lead with the recommendations, then back them up with the data, so here are my new recommendations:

Slide 19

Not only do we want to reduce casualties, we also recognize that since death amongst the stars is inevitable, we also looked at how we could improve the overall “quality” of deaths. Firstly, Picard has to go, this guy is responsible for so many deaths it’s almost a genocide. Secondly, we’re not sure if humans are just plain ole incompetent, and we aren’t able to compare to overall UFP death rates, but it seems that aliens die far less than humans, so hire more of them. Believe it or not, in the larger picture, in fact General Operations crewmen, like engineering, navigation and communications, die FAR more often than Security. For the picky people, yes security is PART of operations, I can explain in detail how it works but for now think of security as separate from operations. Ok, moving along.. Promote quickly to higher ranks because they tend to die better deaths. We’ll see later on that dying from a ship accident is way less useful to starfleet than if you die saving the galaxy. And hire more experienced captains. Seriously, captains are death traps in their early years, but they seem to less deadly to work for later on in their careers. Ok, lets jump into the data! Hah, I said data... Details: I need to differentiate between shirt colour, divisions and specialties. Shirt colours generally line up to service divisions and in The Original Series, Red Shirts were actually all Operations Divisions (not just security, which is a speciality) and Gold Shirts were Command (trivia note, they were actually lime green, but looked gold under the lights). So just to be clear, divisions have several specialties and security is actually a speciality of Operations. But for the purposes of this presentation when I say “operations” I mean everyone else in operations EXCEPT security, whom I’ll call out separately

Slide 20

Ok, so the primary thing we need to do is clarify our objectives with this analysis, and that is to measure performance in regards to crew survival, and identify opportunities for improvements. Our KPI, casualties! We’ll look at several segmentations and correlations including species, career speciality, cause and quality of death, the captain in charge and some other data. Yes, all this data is available online...

Slide 21

If we look at overall starfleet casualties, we can see that it’s very low, less than one person per year dies! (Of course we assume that there’s data missing from all the other ships and captains that paramount didn’t want to show on tv).

Slide 22

However, when we compare captains, we see that in fact it’s not Kirk and all his red shirts that are deadly, in fact Picard is a far more deadlier guy to work for. Hence our first recommendation, fire Pircard!

Slide 23

Now, if we break down the data by species of casualty, we can see that there’s massively more humans dying than any other species. Vulcans appear as nothing but a blip, as do the rest of the alien. Obviously humans are fragile and we should hire more non-humans to reduce our death rates. Ok, yes I know we should be doing casualty rate as a function of the total number of each of the species in the fleet... But that information just isn't available! What species is this woman? Orion slave girl: (But actually, it’s Vina, sole survivor of the SS columbia, crashed on Talos IV, and captive of the talosians, used illusion to stay young and beautiful (and to lure Captain Pike)

Slide 24

When we look at casualties by speciality, command, engineering, operations, sciences, security and tactical, we can see that operations folks die WAY more frequently that security or any other specialty. What we can draw from this is that operations personnel need WAY better training and weapons in order to avoid both accidental and non-accidental death. Yes, I know, we should be comparing it to the total number of each speciality on board, then factor in a danger multiplier which accounts for the specialities that go on away missions and those that don’t... Just roll with me here though! We can also see that security USED to die frequently, but after Kirk’s time their death rate dropped, so in fact, the shirt colour change seems to have worked! Now we can recommend to change operations shirt colour...

Slide 25

Ok, now let’s focus in on the cause of death. Clearly there are many ways to die, but two areas stand out, battle and aliens. As you can see though, there are a lot of ways to die, accidents on an alien world, committing suicide, booby traps, robots, anomolies, viruses, you can even turn evil and get killed by good humans. Above all of these though is sacrificing yourself to save the ship, world, captain or galaxy. In order to understand cause of death, we need to “rank” them in order of quality. Lower quality deaths are just meaningless but higher quality deaths help starfleet! Gorn, Arena (episode), Cestus III

Slide 26

Here’s my suggested scale. If you’re dumb, you die in a ship accident or booby trap. Getting killed by a virus, a robot, evil humans or good humans because you’re evil are around the middle of the pack. Dying in battle is pretty good and at the top we have sacrificing yourself to save the galaxy are the best ways to die (if you have to die at all) from Starfleets point of view! How was Nomad created? A human probe encountered an alien probe (Tan Ru) and the two merged.

Slide 27

Now, if we run a correlation between rank and quality of death, we can see that low ranks die all over the place. There isn’t much consistency there. But when we look at higher ranks, we can see a strong correlation between high rank and high quality of death. Captains don’t die because of space anomalies, they die saving earth! From this we could recommend that because high ranks only die high quality deaths, starfleet should be promoting quickly and often! Besides, higher ranks get to wear cooler dress uniforms.

Slide 28

Now, if we look at the performance of captains over the tenure of their careers, we can clearly see a trend develop. Captains kill early on, probably due to inexperience on the job. If you can make it through the first 3 years of a captain, your chances of survival are much better. Therefore, Starfleet should be hiring more experienced captains. Starfleet has made this tragic mistake before, but I really feel sorry for the crew in the new timeline, because the new captain Kirk is like.. 12.

Slide 29

Ok, sometimes data without context might cause you to jump to the wrong conclusion. It always helps to overlay other types of data. In our case, we’ll look at major conflicts and the major captains in charge at the time. While one might reasonably expect that wars would have the biggest effect on casualties, in fact we can see that they clearly aren’t the ONLY cause. However they can certainly bring some insight into certain spikes. That being said, the other factors which are under starfleets control should be examined and recommendations for improvement could significantly affect casualty rates.

Slide 30

And here’s our recommendation summary: Fire Picard Hire more aliens Give Operations better training (or possibly different colour shirts) Promote quickly! Yet at the same time... And hire more experienced captains!

Slide 31

On a side note, if we do a ratio of love affairs versus years in command, Kirk clearly wins, leading us to believe the sexual revolution occurred somewhere between 2150 and 2250.. And yes I am captain kirks love child.

Slide 32

Thanks for joining me today. Questions? Trivia?

Slide 1

What is Marketing Science? Dan Linton – Marketing Science Director Critical Mass Inc. C R I T I C A L M A S S CM

Slide 2

Definition Marketing Science is the application of measurement methods to ascertain, within a quantifiable degree of accuracy, the effectiveness of a marketing initiative. Or put simply… it’s proof!

Slide 3

Use data Measure performance Find opportunities for optimization Improve marketing campaigns Deliver customized content Improve the customer experience Reduce costs Improve sales To

Slide 4

What we do An example

Slide 5

Starfleet Captain Casualty Performance Analysis and Recommendations Reducing costs by reducing staff turnover C R I T I C A L M A S S CM Star Trek Analytics, The Next Generation

Slide 6

Previous Analysis Red Shirt Phenomenon

Slide 7

Previous Work

Slide 8

Previous Work Conclusions: Captain Kirk “making contact” with alien women has an impact on the crew’s survival. The red-shirt death rate is higher when a fight breaks out than when Kirk meets a woman and a fight breaks out. Yet the analysis shows that Kirk meeting women only happens in 30% of the missions. We can reliably improve the survivability of the red-shirted crewmen by only exploring peaceful, female-only planets (android and alien females included).

Slide 9

Previous Work Recommendations

Slide 12

Previous Work Recommendations

Slide 14

Previous Work Recommendations

Slide 16

Previous Work Recommendations

Slide 18

Previous Work Recommendations

Slide 19

New Recommendations To reduce casualties and improve the “death quality” average, consider: Firing Captain Picard Captain with the highest level of casualties Hiring more non-humans Over 97% of casualties are human Give Operations crewmembers better security training and weapons General Operations crewmembers die much more often than Security specialists Promote quickly to high ranks to achieve more quality deaths High ranks only die high quality deaths Hire more experienced captains Captains kill far more at the beginning of their careers

Slide 20

Our Goal: Measure and Improve Starfleet Performance KPI: Casualties Segmentations and correlations: Species Specialty Cause of Death Captain Other Data Includes TOS, TNG, DSP, Voyager, Enterprise and the movies up to but not including the last reboot. Source data: Memory-alpha.org

Slide 21

Overall Casualties per year are low Casualties/Year: 0.84 per year! *0 death years removed from chart

Slide 22

By Captain Kirk NOT the deadliest Captain, it’s Picard!

Slide 23

By Species Humans are by far the easiest species to die Recommendation: Hire more non-humans to increase life expectancy

Slide 24

By Specialty Operations crewmen die far more frequently than security Shirt colour change may have been 30% effective at reducing security deaths. Consider changing Operations shirt colour Recommendation: Give operations crewmembers better security training and weapons

Slide 25

By Cause of Death Battle and Being Killed by Aliens are #1 and #2 killers

Slide 26

Quality of Death Scale

Slide 27

Quality of Death vs. Rank Virtually no correlation between quality of death and rank at lower ranks, although the highest ranks only die high quality deaths Recommendation: Promote quickly to high ranks to achieve more quality deaths

Slide 28

By Captain Over Time Greatest deaths are early in captain’s career. Recommendation: Hire more experienced captains

Slide 29

Casualties – Captain/Conflict Level Overlay Archer Kirk Picard Janeway Sisko Andorian and Xindi Wars Romulan War Klingon War Khitomer Wolf 359 / Borg Conflict Kazon Klingon Cardassian War Dominion War Q Civil War Voyager Borg Conflict Wars do influence casualty counts, but are not the only factor

Slide 30

Summary

Slide 31

Appendix Love Ratio = Number of Love Affairs / Years in Command Conclusion: Sexual revolution occurred 2150 - 2250

Slide 32

Thank you Dan Linton – Marketing Science Director Critical Mass Inc.

Tags: web analytics marketing science

URL:
More by this User
Most Viewed
Previous Page Next Page
This user hasn't uploaded any other presenations yet.
Previous Page Next Page