The Future of Energy

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The future of energy Presented on December 9, 2008

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The big picture

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“Peak oil” Oil production peak does not mean we’ve “run out of oil” Any time between now and 2040 Not easily replaced

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“Peak oil plateau/Peak lite” IEA

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Oil reserves are tenuous

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Oil reserves are tenuous

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Drill, baby, drill! EIA

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Drill, baby, drill! EIA

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ANWR & THE OCS Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 780,000 bpd in 2027 (2 cents per gallon) Previously off limits OCS: 160,000 bpd in 2030 If available “today” (2007), would boost domestic production 18.6% Price is set by world production/demand Present crude oil consumption ~16 million bpd (20 million bpd total petroleum products) EIA

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The Bakken Formation Montana & North Dakota Up to 300 billion barrels of oil 41 year supply! . . . but 3 – 4.3 billion recoverable ~6 months worth of oil

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Cuba & China China drilling 50 miles off Florida coast? China has exploratory agreement with Cuba Potential drilling on the island, not on the OCS

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Sustainability Feed 9+ billion? Pollution Destruction of ecosystems census.gov

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Jackson (2008)

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Global Warming Emissions of greenhouse gases must peak by ~2020 Kharecha & Hansen (2008)

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Tipping points Lenton et al (2008)

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Today 450 ppm 550 ppm Why 450 ppm?

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Is this what a tipping point looks like? NASA.gov

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If you don’t believe in global warming IPCC

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If you don’t believe in global warming National Geographic

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National Geographic

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A price on carbon “Externality” Cap and Trade Grandfathering or Auction Carbon Tax Fairness “Sky Trust” or “Cap and Dividend”

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Setting goals Pacala and Socolow (2004)

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Cost IEA

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Cost IEA

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Priorities NYTimes.com

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Profit margin: 9.2% R&D as a % of revenue: 0.23%

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Efficiency and Conservation

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Lessons from the ‘70s EIA

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Lessons from the ‘70s Rosenfeld (2007)

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The California Example Rosenfeld (2007)

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Decoupled utilities Revenue not tied to amount of energy produced Utilities estimate sales and fixed costs Regulators set rate Too high, difference is credited back Too low, shortfall made up for during the next rate adjustment

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Decoupled utilities

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HVDC transmission lines Rudervall, Charpentier, & Sharma

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Co-generation (CHP) Kerr (2008)

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Co-generation (CHP) Kerr (2008)

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Green buildings Buildings: 40% of emissions ¾ of all buildings in 2030 don’t exist or will be renovated before then $22 billion for green buildings: $8 billion annual savings 22 500 MW coal plants retired without replacement Tax incentives, utility rebates, education Reduction in utilities > increase in mortgage Mazria & Kershner (2008)

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Appliance standards David Goldstein

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Mileage standards EPA

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Mileage standards EPA

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Mileage standards 2007 Standards 35 mpg by 2020 US fleet average for all new vehicles Standards set by vehicle class, not by company Whatever combination to reach 35 mpg fleet average Mass transit? US density is ¼ of EU and 1/11 ofJapan

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Technologies

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Plug-in hybrids EPRI (2007)

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The trouble with biofuels Economist.com NASA.gov

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The trouble with biofuels Fargione et. al. (2008) Time.com

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Next generation biofuels Should not compete with food crops Should not use large amounts of fresh water Should not use large energy or fertilizer inputs Should not displace (directly or indirectly) large natural carbon sinks Should be economically viable

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2007 Renewable Fuels Standard 36 billion barrels by 2022 Corn ethanol capped at 15 billion barrels in 2015 Remainder “advanced biofuels” Biomass diesel replacements: 50% GHG improvement “Cellulosic” gasoline replacements: 60% GHG improvement Others: 20% improvement

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Tapping the cellulose Chemical hydrolysis Acid Enzymatic hydrolysis Enzymes – e.g. a ruminant's stomach Gasification Heated in low oxygen conditions, forming syngas (CO and H2) Fed to bacteria to create sugars Fischer-Tropsch Pyrolysis No (or very little) O2 present “Bio char” production Soil quality and carbon sequestration Terra Preta del Indio “Bio-oil” or “pyrolysis oil” Syngas Burn it!

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Plain old grass Tilman, Hill, & Lehman (2006)

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Plain old grass Tilman, Hill, & Lehman (2006)

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Miscanthus uark.edu

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Waste Yard waste Municipal waste Agricultural waste Plant and animal Forestry waste

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Jatropha ecotality.com

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Algae popularmechanics.com

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Solar Architecture 2030

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Thin film solar Copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) Click image now to start video

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Solar potential Oksolar.com

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Concentrated Solar Power newsblaze.com

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Wind

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Wind vermonterswithvision.org

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Storing Solar & Wind Molten Salt Pumped storage Compressed air storage

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Geothermal Duffield & Sass (2003)

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A smart grid 2 way communication Smart appliances Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) Buffers demand Storage for wind electricity

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What about _____ ?

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Nuclear

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Nuclear

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Nuclear Expensive e.g. One plant in Florida was estimated to cost $12 - $24 billion for 2-3 GW Waste problem 1 wedge = 10 Yucca mountains worldwide, plus existing strorage needs $6.7 billion spent on Yucca mountain already Not a global solution Weapons proliferation “Fourth Generation Nuclear”

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“Clean Coal” DOE

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ilovemountains.org

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“Clean Coal” 1983 2004 ilovemountains.org

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“Clean Coal” Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Gasification creates syngas (H2 and CO) and separates out pollutants, including CO2 Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) One wedge = entire oil infrastructure Retrofit existing plants “Chilled ammonia” Pulls CO2 out of flue

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“Clean Coal” “FutureGen” DOE

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Hydrogen “Hydrogen reforming” Burn the Natural Gas! Electrolysis Generate electricity Create hydrogen Transport and store hydrogen (Infrastructure) Turn hydrogen back into electricity or burn it ~75% of electrical energy lost or Generate electricity Charge battery Power electric motor

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Thanks, but no thanks

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Coal to liquids Indirect coal liquefaction Gasified Syngas converted to diesel using Fischer -Tropsch Electricity co-product Direct coal liquefaction Pulverized and mixed with oil and H2 Pressurized

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Oil (Tar) Sands Various methods e.g. Sand + hot water & NaOH Lots of energy (natural gas) Lots of water 1.25 million bpd 40% of production

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Oil (Tar) Sands garthlenz.com

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Oil Shale “Retorting” Surface In-Situ >20 years 1 million bpd >30 years 3 million bpd

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Oil Shale 1 million bpd 12 GW 10 large coal plants

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“The Bottom of the Barrel” Brandt & Farrell (2007)

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Epilogue: “The Pickens Plan” Wind Wind farms in corridor from Texas to North Dakota New power grid to connect it to the coasts ~20% of US electricity Natural Gas Natural Gas for electricity diverted to transportation fuel Mandate government fleets and semi trucks convert as old vehicles are retired Reduce oil imports 38% in 10 years

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The Global Warming Debate A Layman’s Guide to the Science and Controversy cce.890m.com