Future of Innovation 2012-01-26 - Media Evolution

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Slide 1

ON-button cc-licensed, see http://www.flickr.com/photos/troed/3326196676 (yes I can has GIMP skillz)

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“the mobile industry”

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/buckofive/310262836/ Tribes of people living in a savannah. Due to climate change, a shift in wind paths, the savannah dried out into a desert and these tribes had to live closer together. Gave rise to the Egyptian civilization.

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/jtriefen/3857079786/ less ping

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/kolebee/2733848532/ high bandwidth, low ping Written word. Larger amounts of culture, of information, could be passed on to new generations.

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wikipedia Library of Alexandria, copyright, the right to get a copy of the books you had entering the port. aggregating

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/brandbook/4464648681/ printing press - start of democratization of knowledge high bandwidth, somewhat lower ping

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/denzombie/2700428928/ telegraph - minimizing distances low ping over large distances, low bandwidth and low reach

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/2838779017/ newspapers - spreading of one culture to a bigger population

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/fwp-dawson/1464096544/

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telephone - higher emotional bandwidth, better at meme spreading

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/zagrobot/2687905423/ TV - biggest cultural shift in history so far, high emotional bandwith, large reach, skewed ping though – mention Clay Shirky on cognitive surplus?

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/lady-madonna/2317820077/ Fidonet - group discussion with a ping time of 1-2 days

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/violinha/1277231957/ Internet - globalizing the world Group discussions with poll pingtime

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mallix/4814619641/ Mobile - moving telephone from place to person

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/johanl/4382372758/ Mobile Internet - end of learning and start of finding when needed

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visors in 2013-2015 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrDgFjBSVuE

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information doubling rates http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2006/02/the_speed_of_in.php has numbers, more can be found in the documentary TechnoCalyps citing Robert Anton Wilson 1, 1500, 1750, 1900, 1950, 1960 … now every year (Kevin says 18 months) – so between 6 and 24 http://wikibin.org/articles/the-jumping-jesus-phenomenon.html important to name a final number just to shock? http://www.flickr.com/photos/lenbo/2032842547/

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

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“the mobile industry”

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Android Green is #A4C639

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http://www.statistik.pts.se/pts1h2010/AnvandningTrafik.htm

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http://www.swedroid.se/43894/qualcomm-forst-med-28nm/

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“knee of the curve” (in this example “inflection point” isn’t mathematically correct) why this is true: “standing on the shoulders of giants” (Newton and others) and the body of technological knowledge keeps doubling -thus an exponential curve

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futurists, look at

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http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:11779

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picture: “Richard Stallman, founder of the free software movement, the GNU Project, and the Free Software Foundation. (Born 1953.)” http://www.flickr.com/photos/dunechaser/160405823/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_your_base_are_belong_to_us

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O’Reilly: This photo is licensed under a Creative Commons license. If you use this photo, please list the photo credit as "Scott Beale / Laughing Squid" and link the credit to laughingsquid.com. 

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enter pirate kitteh as well http://cheezburger.com/View.aspx?aid=2350521600

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IMPORTANT: I’m not saying RMS nor Tim O’Reilly has anything to do with the Pirate Party! Lots of room for misunderstanding here. ... come to the conclusion that it's about openness & fairness

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... and another name for openness is the participatory culture

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... and this is nothing new, really, Hippel has been talking about this since the 70s

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... and a lot of people apparently read Hippel’s ideas since customer involvement went up ;)

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consumer is someone who receives one way communication customer is someone who might get a word in colleague is someone you work WITH <--- that’s what we want so how’s innovation done, then?

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http://sinekpartners.typepad.com/refocus/2010/07/i-hate-you.html Steve Jobs recently shared his thoughts about how the entire music industry failed to innovate something like iTunes. His answer was as profound as it was simple (fancy that). The music industry, he expounds, thought their customer was Tower Records or Virgin MegaStore...but it never was. Those were their distribution channels. The actual customer is the person who consumes the music. And it is the end user, not the intermediaries, whom Apple focuses on in all they do. “Snackade precis med Simon. Citatet – och länken – du efterlyser är hämtat från en D8-intervju med Steve Jobs. Du hittar det här: http://video.allthingsd.com/video/d8-steve-jobs-onstage-full-length-video/70F7CC1D-FFBF-4BE0-BFF1-08C300E31E11 Steve Jobs D8, July 2010 (du får spola fram till 1:16:34 för att höra både frågan och svaret).”

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starfish and the spider (brafman & beckstrom) self organizing vs centrally controlled ”leaderless organisations” starfish: http://www.flickr.com/photos/topyti/2314697295/ spider: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickisnature/4248737993/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/vermininc/3437337311/

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what Seth Godin refers to as the lizard brain: http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/01/quieting-the-lizard-brain.html

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factory photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/whsimages/954443940/ quote from “Linchpin” - Seth Godin What factory owners want is compliant, low-paid, replaceable cogs to run their efficient machines. Factories created productivity, and productivity produced profits. It was fun while it lasted (for the factory owners). Our society is struggling because during times of change, the very last people you need on your team are well-paid bureaucrats, note takers, literalists, manual readers, TGIF laborers, map followers, and fearful employees. The compliant masses don't help so much when you don't know what what to do next. What we want, what we need, what we must have are indispensable human beings. We need original thinkers, provocateurs, and people who care. We need marketers who can lead, salespeople able to risk making a human connection, passionate change makers willing to be shunned if it is necessary for them to make a point. Every organization needs a linchpin, the one person who can bring it together and make a difference. Some organizations haven't realized this yet, or haven't articulated it yet, but we need artists.  Artists are people with a genius for finding a new answer, a new connection, or a new way of getting things done. “What happens when the factory goes away?” - http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/03/the-factory-in-the-center.html the idea of the process which just needs feeding to produce results Is dead

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http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1416513

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/hypergenesb/44194512/ mention Matt Webb commenting on Reboot11 that Wikipedia and Apollo moon landings took the same number of hours in the same amount of time. Eye-opener. http://video.reboot.dk/video/486775/matt-webb-scope ”in the 1960s a generation of explorers went to the moon. our generation ... ”

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Clay Shirky (web 2.0 conf, 2008) – update, he’s now written a book about it. ”Cognitive Surplus”  million human thought hours, http://www.herecomeseverybody.org/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html get figure on how many would ditch the TV if they have to choose (58%)? Twitter by deeped from Distruptive Media 2008 - https://twitter.com/deeped/status/1035839255 genY – the creators – the right-brainers

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“we don’t just filter the information, we … “

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brain takes in sensory input and generates output (movement, speech etc)

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visors in 2013-2015 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrDgFjBSVuE

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visors in 2013-2015 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrDgFjBSVuE

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/444790702/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/3282843423/ http://blogs.sonyericsson.com/troedsangberg/porous-companies/

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future of innovation or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Participatory Culture Troed Sångberg blogs.sonyericsson.com/troedsangberg twitter.com/troed ;

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"When bilingual people switch from one language to another, they start thinking differently, too." L. Boroditsky (Psych. Prof)

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6000 BCE http://www.flickr.com/photos/buckofive/310262836/ 10M

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3000 BCE http://www.flickr.com/photos/jtriefen/3856273837/ 25M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/kolebee/2733848532/

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300 BCE 120M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/glenirah/2736426549/ 400M 1450 CE

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/denzombie/2700428928/ 1850 CE 1270M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/2838779017/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/fwp-dawson/1464096544/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/glenirah/2736426549/ source: Morgan Stanley 1930 CE 2100M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/zagrobot/2687905423/ 1955 CE 2750M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/lady-madonna/2317820077/ 1970 CE 3700M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/violinha/1277231957/ 1995 CE 5675M

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mallix/4814619641/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/johanl/4382372758/ 2010 CE 6900M

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EG5 Ralph Osterhout 2015 CE 7300M

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1950 … 1 CE 1500 1750 1900 http://www.flickr.com/photos/lenbo/2032842547/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/lenbo/2032842547/

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UN Medium World Population projection

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"We are like dwarfs standing [or sitting] upon the shoulders of giants, and so able to see more and see farther than the ancients." Bernard of Chartres ~1130 CE

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Information is the giant upon whose shoulders we’re standing

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/trentstrohm/205858578/

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Rate of innovation depends on mind to mind latency and bandwidth

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source: Androlib

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http://1000memories.com/blog/94-number-of-photos-ever-taken-digital-and-analog-in-shoebox

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http://www.swedroid.se/43894/qualcomm-forst-med-28nm/

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no change change once reality development

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If it touches digital it becomes exponential

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“Nice . . . . 2 Copyrights broken in one model :p” Angled Duplo Brick to Brio Track adapter with snap-lock http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:11779

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/dunechaser/160405823/ all your source are belong to us

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(cc) Scott Beale / laughingsquid.com

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changing customer involvement Evolution of Openness – Open Innovation in Historical Perspective - Saarinen, J from: User-Driven Innovation - http://www.foranet.dk

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ustomer olleague onsumer c c c

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/ the entire music industry failed to innovate / thought their customer was Tower Records or Virgin MegaStore / but it never was Those were their distribution channels / it is the end user, not the intermediaries, whom Apple focuses on in all they do from an interview with Steve Jobs

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/topyti/2314697295/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickisnature/4248737993/

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meritocracy “The essence of meritocracy is remarkably similar to Darwin’s ‘survival of the fittest’” http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2008/07/17/university-of-malaya-medical-student-intake/

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SCARY http://www.flickr.com/photos/vermininc/3437337311/

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“The old principle lives on because practitioners are not comfortable with the vision – and promise – of the new” The Nature of Technology – W. Brian Arthur Linchpin – Seth Godin

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/whsimages/954443940/ What happens when the factory goes away?

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2015 “Work will become less routine, characterized by increased volatility, hyperconnectedness, 'swarming' and more” “In addition, simulation, visualisation and unification technologies, working across yottabytes of data per second, will demand an emphasis on new perceptual skills.” source: Gartner

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/hypergenesb/44194512/

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cognitive surplus 100* http://flickr.com/photos/aaronescobar/2170448724/ 1 000 000* *) million human thought hours

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/jhf/2771447581/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/lorelei-ranveig/2294885420/

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EG5 Ralph Osterhout

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EG5 Ralph Osterhout

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/444790702/

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/3282843423/ be porous

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Troed Sångberg blogs.sonyericsson.com/troedsangberg twitter.com/troed ; innovation == lowering the latency between minds

Summary: Presentation held at a Packbridge + Media Evolution event in Malmö, Sweden

Tags: future mobile openinnovation

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