Science, space & sharing Ash Sakula Planning Breakout 3rd April 2012 Tim Stonor t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor

Focus on human transaction.

Focus on human transaction. Educate around science-based design principles for achieving transaction.

Focus on human transaction. Educate around science-based design principles for achieving transaction. Monetise design value.

Where do we come from / What are we / Where are we going D'où venons nous / Que sommes nous / Où allons nous Paul Gaugin

Suppressed health & movement economy. Enhanced health & movement economy. Main street, mixing global & local movement. Fast highways, separating global & local movement. We have stopped building main streets

Urban space So what Space is invisible. So, is it: fluffy stuff, only interesting to urban designers? or: a hard-nosed currency to be handled carefully by investors & asset managers?

The pedestrian movement survey has been carried out on Thursday Febuary. 20th 2003 and Tuesday Febuary. 22nd 2005. Pedestrian observation Weekday all day average People Per Hour Lambeth North Station Kennington Station Underground station

Methodology Paved with Gold Due to the difficulty of forecasting for a redeveloped site, a benchmark study was developed through a comparison with ten other centres in London to project a more confident forecast. The information of the ten centres are gathered from Paved with Gold and Formed with Gold published by CABE and Colin Buchanan. (CABE, 2007) The studies…… The objective is to identify the factors that influences pedestrian movement for different centres in London. E

Legend Predicted pedestrian movement Observed pedestrian movement Over-performing Under-performing Elephant and Castle with predicted population change Severe underperformance Methodology Paved with Gold People per hour

Pedestrian movement patterns are fundamentally influenced by the degree to which the design of the development creates an accessible, intelligible spatial layout in which all routes and public spaces are sufficiently activated.   Key design factors lines of sight and movement, which create a "layout geometry" for which properties of spatial accessibility and intelligibility can be measured through spatial layout analysis. Pedestrian forecast model Methodology Transport attraction Land use attraction Spatial layout attraction Pedestrian forecast The degree to which public and private transport systems integrate with the development.   Key design factors transport capacity transport location, measured in terms of spatial accessibility. The strength of attraction of movement-sensitive land uses, especially retail and community facilities.   Key design factors land use quantum active ground level frontages, the presence of which encourages pedestrian movement and the absence of which deters pedestrian activity.

Pedestrian correlation model Spatial layout attraction Weekend R square 40% Weekday R square 35%

Pedestrian correlation model Retail attraction Shopping Centre Metric distance Weekend R square 51% Weekday R square 38%

over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Bus stop Underground station Metric distance Pedestrian correlation model Transport attraction Weekend R square 28% Weekday R square 26%

Weekday R square= 60% Weekend R square=73% Pedestrian forecast Pedestrian forecast model Spatial layout attraction Weekday R square = 49% Weekend R square = 54% Retail attraction Weekday R square = 38% Weekend R square = 51% Transport attraction Weekday R square = 26% Weekend R square = 28% Actual movement Predicted movement Actual movement Predicted movement

UCL Space Syntax Laboratory Fundamental research Teaching Technology development Space Syntax Limited Strategic consulting Internship Technology development People Ideas Questions Research & practice A process of co-creation