The centre is separated by a complex networks of skybridges, subways and un-constituted urban blocks that deters pedestrian movement. According to the supplementary planning guidance from the district borough, of the inhabitants living in the area only 20% of expenditure is being spent within the centre. One objective of redesign has been to increase local spend by up to 50%.

Elephant and Castle was once a burgeoning residential quarter of South London with a strong commercial core many and high density urban character. The centre benefited simultaneously from both strategic communications access to central London and residential suburbs in the South and stood as the integrated core of its local residential community. As can be seen from the map above, the centre was a focus of accessibility at all scale of movement. This meant that local businesses benefited directly from passing trade.

The scale of urban fragmentation that has since ensued can be seen by the comparison of development figure grounds from 1916 and 2005. The close grained nature of the built fabric of 1916 has been undermined through successive wholesale redevelopment and replaced with fragmented, incoherent urban form. Mirroring this evolution has been the increasing prevalence given to facilitating global through movement at the expense of local inter-accessiblity. Movement modes have been physically and functionally separated to the degree that the major public and private transport through routes are extremely difficult to traverse for pedestrians.

All non-domestic properties have a rateable value, which broadly represents the annual rent that the property could have been let for on the open market. The rateable value of non-domestic property is fixed in most cases by an independent Valuation Officer of the Valuation Office Agency. All non-domestic properties are re-valued every 5 years. The latest revaluation is on 01/04/2010. Information on rateable values can also be found on the Valuation Office Agency's website at www.voa.gov.uk

All non-domestic properties have a rateable value, which broadly represents the annual rent that the property could have been let for on the open market. The rateable value of non-domestic property is fixed in most cases by an independent Valuation Officer of the Valuation Office Agency. All non-domestic properties are re-valued every 5 years. The latest revaluation is on 01/04/2010. Information on rateable values can also be found on the Valuation Office Agency's website at www.voa.gov.uk

Numbers for construction costs came from the RICS’s BCIS book (building cost information service). These costs include materials and labour.

Limitations of the model We did not model non revenue producing uses (community assets) phasing schedule section 106 - Communication levy

IRR – internal rate of return is a measure of the profitability of a project. It is an indicator of the efficiency, quality, of an investment. It is not the same thing as yield which is (1 year of revenue / purchase price of the property) Generally speaking, the higher a project's internal rate of return, the more desirable it is to undertake the project. As such, IRR can be used to rank several prospective projects a firm is considering. Assuming all other factors are equal among the various projects, the project with the highest IRR would probably be considered the best and undertaken first. IRR is calculated by solving for (r) in the NPV equation where NVP = 0. Net = Revenue – operating costs, debt service, taxes

How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference 26th April 2012 Tim Stonor Managing Director, Space Syntax Limited Visiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor

Trafalgar Square The new Central Staircase

Nottingham, England Old Market Square

Millennium Bridge, London

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility. More accessible places get more movement. An evidence-based approach to urban planning

In brief same input Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins 80% retail located on 20% most spatially accessible streets

Unplanned settlements Spatial layout distributes land use Land use distribution Spatial accessibility

Area 5 Area 6 Area 3 Area 2 Perth, Australia Property crime analysis Spatial layout influences crime & safety

What is the city for?

Movement is the lifeblood of the city.

Congestion The goal of advanced civilisations?

What is the city for? The city is for transaction Social Economic Cultural

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

1916 Coherent urban layout “The Piccadilly of the south” 2005 Fragmented urban layout - isolated, divided communities - disposable income exodus. Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

The degree to which the design of the development creates an accessible, intelligible spatial layout. Elephant & Castle Pedestrian Forecast Model Transport attraction Land use attraction Spatial layout attraction Pedestrian forecast The degree to which public and private transport systems integrate with the development. The strength of attraction of movement-sensitive land uses, especially retail.

Pedestrian Forecast Model Spatial layout attraction Weekend R square 40% Weekday R square 35% 1504_Ax_Ex_R2000 Spatial layout attraction is calculated by analysing the network of pedestrian routes and measuring the degree to which individual route segments are likely to be used by people moving through the area. The degree to which the spatial layout attraction influences actual pedestrian movement is indicated by the R square value where the higher R square means a higher degree of fit (0% is no fit, 100% is perfect fit).

Retail attraction Shopping Centre over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Origins Metric distance Weekend R square 51% Weekday R square 38% 1504_Ax_Ex_MCA_Centres Retail attraction is calculated by measuring the distance of any route segment from the two principal areas of retail focus – Elephant and Castle Shopping Centre and the East Street Market. East Street Market

Transport attraction Weekend R square 28% Weekday R square 26% 1504_Ax_Ex_MCA_Bus Transport attraction is calculated according to the distance of any pedestrian segment from either a bus stop, tube or rail station. over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Bus stop Underground station Metric distance

Weekday R square = 60% Weekend R square=73% Pedestrian forecast Pedestrian Forecast Model Spatial layout attraction Weekday R square = 49% Weekend R square = 54% Retail attraction Weekday R square = 38% Weekend R square = 51% Transport attraction Weekday R square = 26% Weekend R square = 28% Actual movement Forecast movement Actual movement Forecast movement

Design proposal Forecast >600 300 – 600 150 – 300 100 – 150 60 – 100 0 – 60 People Per Hour 1504_PedMov_Forecast_PropMasterplan

Proposed retail land use Pedestrian movement forecast 9am Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

Proposed retail land use Pedestrian movement forecast 12pm Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

Proposed retail land use Pedestrian movement forecast 2pm Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

Proposed retail land use Pedestrian movement forecast 4pm Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

Proposed retail land use Pedestrian movement forecast 6pm Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

Urban value

Design factors influencing property security UrbanBuzz

Value of property security UrbanBuzz

Value of property security 0 UrbanBuzz

Average rateable value

Correlations Socio economic Spatial layout Rateable value Socio-spatial associations

Rateable value Forecast model Rateable value = IMD score + Global accessibility + Local accessibility Correlation 88% Rateable Value = 731.267 + -3901.326*Income score + 6.4129e-8*Choice RN + 9.718*Choice R400

Case studies Earls Court Elephant & Castle

Earls Court Scenarios Dislocated layout Integration R400 Proposed layout Accessibility score 35 Accessibility score 75

Elephant & Castle master plan Scenarios Proposed layout Dislocated layout Integration R400 Accessibility score: 93 Accessibility score: 57

Average rateable value forecast Dislocated Alternative Proposed layout Proposed layout Earls Court Elephant and Castle Dislocated Alternative

Average rateable value forecast Proposed layout plan rateable value Dislocated layout rateable value

Financial model

Financial model Revenue assumptions Office rental value Residential rental value Retail rental value Savills 2010 Jones Lang LaSalle 2010 Space Syntax 2012

Financial model Cost assumptions Cost assumptions come from RICS (capital costs)

Financial model Cash flow summary

Urban value Uplift Over 40 Years Earls Court Elephant & Castle

Dissemination

A Global choice pattern of Jeddah Overview Introduction Contents Representations of space Analysis of spatial relations Interpretive models Theories B Local choice pattern of Jeddah Online Training Platform Analysis of spatial relations <<4/4> Scale - Radius In order to analyse the different scales of spatial properties (A, B) (eg. those found at community scale), the concept of radius is introduced to serve as a tool for selecting sub-systems. For example, we select all spaces up to 100m from a certain space. The radius also can be defined as topological or geometric distance. As a result, we have a package of measures assessing spatial configuration. At least, each of the six measures (integration and choice with three definitions of distance) can be applied with the three definitions of radius, giving a total of 18 measures, which can be applied at any radius, so yielding a potentially very large set of possible syntactic measures. Standard measures However, the standard measures, widely used in space syntax, are angular integration and choice at various metric radii, because these standard measures lead to more e powerful analyses, which have been supported and verified by a large number of studies and practices. In particular, academic research (Hillier & Iida, 2005) has demonstrated that least angular analysis, rather than fewest turns and/or metric shortest routes analysis, best corresponds to movement patterns observed in real cities. This can be most likely explained by the fact that people use an angular geometric model of their environment to calculate distances. . Draft

Social value Economic value Environmental value

Urban value Social value Economic value Environmental value

6.5 billion 9 billion 2010 2050 World Population 3 billion 7 billion 2010 2050 Urban Population 1 billion 3 billion 2010 2050 1.5 billion 2010 2050 Middle Class 4 billion Informal Urban Population Source: UN-Habitat, Goldmann Sachs

Suppressed urban value Enhanced urban value Main street, mixing global & local movement Fast highway separating global & local movement An institutional challenge Which will it be?

Tim Stonor Managing Director, Space Syntax Limited Visiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor