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Slide 14

The advantages of clustering and availability of choice. A full breadth market. To each their own. Desirability determines density.

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX “[President Eisenhower] went on to say that the matter of running Interstate routes through the congested parts of the cities was entirely against his original concept and wishes; that he never anticipated that the program would turn out this way . . . and that he was certainly not aware of any concept of using the program to build up an extensive intra-city route network as part of the program he sponsored.  He added that those who had not advised him that such was being done, and those who steered the program in such a direction, had not followed his wishes.” Notes from Meeting April 6th, 1960 Source: Eisenhower Presidential Library Archives

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX But First… A cavalcade of the Absurd: Entropy & Inertia

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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We think of urbanism in superficial terms, like… Mixed-use, Build-to-lines, density, parking garages, etc… Sometimes it works… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX We think of urbanism in superficial terms, like… Mixed-use, Build-to-lines, density, parking garages, etc… Sometimes it doesn’t… Park Lane Place, Dallas Villages at Allen & Fairview, Allen TX

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Of themselves or in conjunction, none of these traits necessarily makes a place urban. The result is town centers that are off-center… and therefore their value, potential, & utility is lessened IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Victory, Dallas

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Off-center town centers are a by-product of what I call the illogical city. In the logical city there is a direct relationship between concentrated movement, traffic, and value: “High Street” In the illogical city, there is tension… They want to be near the movement, but not too near it. Marshall, streets & patterns

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Champs Elysees moves 84,000 cars per day. 635 moves 250,000. Champs Elysees also moves 500,000 pedestrians per day. Champs Elysees, Paris I-635

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And there are strange outcomes and weird responses within the illogical city…. Imbued by what psychologists call magical thinking… And driven by a disconnection from reality, the logical city IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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The reason for the success of the logical city is its highly interconnected network… Of which, value, density, resilience, sustainability, authenticity, & urbanism are the natural outgrowth. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Urban decay is indicative of a failure in transportation planning. The result is long-term value (resilience) is at stake. Disintegration of networks leads to Disinvestment. I’m going to examine how and why freeways gutted our downtowns and how and why they are the primary Opportunity for revitalizing our cities as well. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Figure grounds: detroit morphology

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The traits we’ve identified as “urban” are commonalities we’ve identified in successful urban places, but are by-products of something which determines whether they come together or not… Something deeper. Density is not necessarily “urban,” which works at the full range of densities. Instead, density is a product of desirability. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Hamlet: Rural Density yet Urban Suburban Density yet Urban “Urban” Density yet Urban

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Emotion. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX And Cities are physical representations of economies… Then it is logical to apply emotional wants & needs to cities as a driver of the resultant urban form Economics are driven by the exchange of needs, wants, demands of emotion…

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Emotion. But the city of today is one defined by fear. And monoculture. And therefore an unhealthy market, unintelligent systems, and unstable settlements. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Sprawl vs Urban Transect, via Dan Zack “Urban” yet gated

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Emotion. The city of yesterday and tomorrow rejects fear out of our own humanity. Old is adapted to new… In favor of our wants and need for social and economic exchange. Because it is more advantageous. City, true urbanism, is the greatest invention in human history, evolved over thousands of years to facilitate the need and want for social & economic exchange. Where convenience and proximity aren’t at odds, but combine into truly world class places. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Emotion. Fear was a natural, emergent by-product. There was a time when “city” wasn’t advantageous. Instead, it was more advantageous to get out of them. And we’ve continued many of the resultant land use policies to this day… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Emotion. Where child labor laws are still relevant and humane, Euclidean zoning and other overreactions to the poverty and disease-stricken, overcrowded industrial cities are no longer relevant. Most industry has left town…to cheaper land or cheaper labor. Or industry has become cleaner itself… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Torrent Spain, Valencia Suburb – range of housing, sequestered industrial sector, walkable transit

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To update our policies that foster more usable, livable, lovable places… Must set up a framework for high quality urbanism to emerge as by-product, by understanding the system… So that decisions aren’t based on facile understanding/interpretation of property rights… Result is adjacent uses that negatively effect each other…rather than working towards a common good Where the place is greater than sum of parts…and therefore there is a profit increment to being a part of it. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Negatively affecting adjacencies Walls as dividers between otherwise compatible land uses

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What is a City? A city is a complex system like any complex system. All living complex systems have characteristics of fractal patterns. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Ecosystems are complex systems Cities are ecosystems

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What is a City? Fractals appear complex due to the millions of repetitions… ..of very simple rules. The city is a fractal. It appears complex. But to fix it, we must find the simple rules. Emotion. Our wants and needs dictate city form, real estate markets respond IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Simple rule yielding many forms: All water wants to find its level

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What is a City? The simple rule of cities is based on emotion… Desirability  value  density Must shift desirability in favor of core cities…. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Dallas in 1930 illustrates graduated density according to desirability & interconnectivity

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What is a City? Invisible city vs. the Physical city – when the two don’t match, natural human use will erode the physical shape until it matches the invisible connections between want and need. Smaller blocks, complex interconnected street networks are more usable & adaptable IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Modern Rome – Highly Adapted Ancient Rome - Centrally Planned Evidence infrastructure doesn’t match needs

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What is a City? When needing to save time, going places, we aim to decrease dissatisfaction – straight lines When wanting to spend time, enjoy places, we mean to increase satisfaction. Increased route choice instills efficiency and intelligence into the user and therefore into the overall system of the movement economy. The places of decreased dissatisfaction are balanced with the places for satisfaction without compromising one or the other. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Modern Rome – Highly Adapted Ancient Rome - Centrally Planned

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What is a City? Smaller blocks and more interconnected networks are actually more efficient in terms of movement, space, and premium than “efficiencies of scale” Warehouse space can move to cheaper land at edge. Instead, we’ve combined storefront and warehouse into inefficiency. Total Building Frontage (linear): Ancient Big Blocks: 11859 Modern Small Blocks: 27977 2.36x more linear frontage. Ancient Big Blocks: 355770 Modern Small Blocks: 419655 Modern small blocks have 1.18x more square footage. Ancient Big Blocks: $7,115,400 Modern Small Blocks: $10,491,375 147% more value due to increased storefront space. Ancient Big Blocks: $28,461,600 Modern Small Blocks: $41,965,500 $13.5 million more for the small block style of development Ancient Big Blocks: $46.53 / sq.ft. Modern Small Blocks: $31.5 / sq.ft Verdict: 50% premium for small street & block structure. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Modern Rome– Highly Adapted Ancient Rome - Centrally Planned

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What is a City? Developers appeal to emotion… own yard, “freedom” of automobile, etc… But what infrastructure is necessary for that? Can it be afforded? Is that really desirable? Is it an efficient way to facilitate social and economic exchange? IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? Is that really freedom? When we have a $1.176 trillion 5-year infrastructure deficit? Limited route or mode choice? IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? The purpose of planning should be to fast forward that evolutional process… To ensure the place meets the needs of the people today. And is it highly adaptable for generations. Does it reflect demographic shifts? What was “independence” to one generation might be the opposite to the next. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX The car to Baby Boomers To Millennials, the bike means independence from chauffeuring

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What is a City? To be adaptable, have to instill intelligence into the system…when Chris Alexander wrote that a city is not a tree, he was referring to the modern dendritic transportation patterns funneling cars onto ever bigger “trunks” – little choice…complex adaptive system is no longer complex…can’t adapt. Those systems die. That means choice of route and mode of transportation… users can adapt every trip based on needs/wants/daily circumstance. The modern city needs highly interconnected networks, grids, and multi-modal availability IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX L’Eixample, Barcelona The Evolution of Avinguda Diagonal balances network and modes

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What is a City? And like all complex systems, a city is defined by three major parts: ELEMENTS, INTERCONNECTIONS, and PURPOSE as defined by Donella Meadows, mother of “systemics” IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? ELEMENTS: Most readily apparent…the pretty things that we touch and feel. Subjective, aesthetic, stylistic, ephemeral. But least important. We confuse the leaves for the tree. Or Pritzker Prize winning architects’ buildings for actual cities. Decoration is important, but it’s wasted if it isn’t an outgrowth from within, the demand of people already there. If not fundamental, systemic change, like no change at all… better block examples (Magnolia vs Deep Ellum) Cosmetic, decorative elements, be they brick sidewalks or flower pots to little to drive demand for real estate investment. Feels good to accomplish something…to focus on downtown… but if not systemic change to street network where highest and best use of property adjacent is vacant, parking, or blank walls/warehouses… accomplishing little IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Great Expectations Disappointing results

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What is a City? ELEMENTS – are outgrowths of underlying systems Not value judgment… advantageous, rational choices within each system Everyone else on the road is the enemy (as road network functions best with no one else on the road… ) They’re in your way…taken to logical extreme – mount machine gun… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Smaller cars more advantageous where space is valuable commodity Size, intimidation, and presumptive safety Advantageous in auto-dependent places

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What is a City? INTERCONNECTIONS: visible and invisible, more important. Determinant of form, the infrastructure Primary function whether of internet, brain, or cities is linkages: ideas, goods, services, labor, material… It is thru the linkage and interconnection of networks where value is created, opportunity, like a release valve of pent-up demand via latent human want and need Map of Brain’s Neural Network IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX A city’s neural network

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What is a City? INTERCONNECTIONS: Though all too often our structural interconnections are more barriers than connections. Would you like to visit your waterfront? Who is going to cross this? Entropy & Inertia Gone Wild IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? INTERCONNECTIONS: Movement networks have to balance through movement w/ cross movement Prioritize the network (and all forms of movement) over one route, one mode. Pedestrians Cross Anywhere Crossings at Select Locations No Crossings, Pedestrians Retreat IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? INTERCONNECTIONS: Roads as not just links between things, but places themselves. Change in Matrix – Hierarchy not simply about Level of Service and Thoroughfare plan which biases funding towards expansion of roads at detriment of physical surroundings and more importantly tax base… Factoring Street Type Matrix for Place & Link And not simply A to B But cross traffic Prioritize Network over Particular street West 7th in Fort Worth Moves 20,000 cars/Day Champs Elysees Moves: 500,000 Pedestrians 80,000 Vehicles “Convenience Makes Our cities incredibly Inconvenient IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? PURPOSE: invisible, intangible, but the most important. Change the Genotype, the new Phenotype will emerge… Build places for cars, you get cars… places for people, you get people…. But not people places reliant on the car to get there, the off-center town-center Only two results from the city designed of/by the car: Invaded or Abandoned Invaded City: When Neighborhood Scaled Centers like Henderson Ave, Greenville Ave, Bishop Arts are So Rare they become Regional Destinations lacking infrastructure to support Abandoned City: Typically after a place is invaded, it becomes so undesirable that it is then abandoned, like deep ellum or downtown. Because it is invaded by cars, the typical response is provision of more parking IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? PURPOSE: Meeting daily wants and needs Can’t compete with suburbs for convenient parking. Instead, convenience of downtown and inner ring suburbs must come from walkability and proximity. San Francisco has 66 walkable commercial centers, each serving 5,000-7,000 residents within a 10-minute walk (1 is equivalent of downtown Dallas) You don’t need as much parking when people are living nearby, in desirable, walkable places: With Highly Interconnected Networks, Commercial cores naturally emerge at Convergence Points, intersections of networks. Cities naturally centralize into hierarchies of nodes “Centers of Gravity”, residential market adapts & Envelops based on convenience of amenity. Scientifically, Centers of Gravity are Formed when Energy (Traffic) is condensed into a slow vibration (Critical Mass). You still need the movement to and through a place, just not too fast IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? Unfortunately, we spend most of our time, energy, and debate on the least important things Cosmetic Changes, when we need Paradigmatic, Systemic, and Infrastructural Network reboots Focusing on elements - cost is generally high, and the return very low. We must fix deeper issues of PURPOSE and INTERCONNECTIONS first. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Placemaking process via systemic thinking Equivalency to not changing paradigm, priority, and purpose

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What is a City? Lessons from Bilbao - Supply vs demand side urbanism - Guggenheim followed 15 years of subway, port, and airport expansion and interconnection Interconnectivity, the release valve of pent-up demand – opportunity for citizens (and city) to reposition themselves – opens new markets, repurposes city, reboots economy. Cherry on top. But does help “awareness” factor of integration 15 years of hard work – “vanilla ice cream” Integration release valve, demand -> supply IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? If we get the purpose of a city right, we can then establish appropriate connections serving that higher purpose… Then the elements take care of themselves. Today, the prevailing autocratic purpose governing all decisions? It seems to be strictly about car movement Streets get “improved” when they get widened…become a barrier to interconnectivity and financial burden. Enforcement & regulation – of poorly designed streets – people drive as fast as they feel comfortable – waste of police resources IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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What is a City? The Public determines the purpose, drives policy. Interconnections are carried out by public agencies to follow said policy/purpose. Private markets deliver the elements. So then what should drive purpose and markets? First, we must answer WHY cities formed and perpetuated in the first place IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Why Cities? Some say advances in agricultural revolution allowed clustering. Jane Jacobs argued it was trade. Neither happens without the fundamental human impulse for exploring ways to improve quality of life. Cities, the interconnections between ideas, goods, services, labor, currrency, genes, the greatest multiplier of quality of life ever invented. “Cities could persist—as they have for thousands of years—only if their advantages offset the disadvantages.” ~O’Flaherty IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Why Cities? But it isn’t about what allowed cities to exist. It’s what created those persistent advantages of clustering... Our very humanity. Civilization is inherent to cities. It is being around each other that civilizes us. Dog Whisperer socializes bad dogs by forcing them to get along with others IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Why Cities? Turn to Abraham Maslow: Human Need…first safety and shelter. And ultimately social and economic exchange. Difference between “world class” and “livable” cities, livable cities tend not to have the most cultural amenities (top), but ensure the basic needs of the most can be met IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs Applied to hierarchical classification of place World Class: NYC, London, Tokyo, Paris, Moscow Livable: Copenhagen, Vancouver, Portland, Zurich

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Why Cities? Today, the poor still need access to jobs and services, the rich to amenity, and the middle class a little of both. Forcing poor into car ownership is physically, socially, economically alienating. Opportunity availed thru transportation choice Allows any/all citizens to save, spend, invest, or start a local business… Need to minimize burdens/barriers = accessibility IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Everybody has the most basic of needs Market size diminishes up the ladder without first meeting the more elementary needs

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Why Cities? Upside down triangle, in terms of effort and investment… bowl full of cherries… performing arts centers, bridges, etc They have a role, but should be cherry on top (like Bilbao), when need to first empower people Estimaged City of Dallas median household income in 2009: $39,829 (pre-tax) After taxes to pay for all that infrastructure: 29.85K Most households have 2 cars… Avg O&M cost per year/vehicle $7.5K 29.5/15 = 50.8% of take home pay goes to coerced car dependence 516.6K households in City of Dallas, if each was capable of giving up 1 car: $3.87 Billion per Year could stay in local economy Building a sundae? Or throwing a bunch of cherries together And calling it a sundae (world class)? Because it’s easy (though expensive)? Or hard work of changing paradigm/ Vanilla ice cream? IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX High Cost/ Low Yield Or Low Cost/ High Returns?

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IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX When did it all start to go wrong?

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Why Cities? Industrialization….overcrowding, pollution, disease, pestilence, & poverty pervaded. Advantages no longer outweighed disadvantages. Demand shifted outwards. But we still built relatively urban settlements. It’s all we knew. Purpose was still responsive to human need & thousands of years of collective memory. Expansion still incremental……demand to be away from undesirable industrial city but still as close as possible. Streetcar suburbs, first speculation outwards… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Why Not Cities? Eventually, industrialization brought about the assembly line for efficient manufacturing. Then the car. Then the road dominated by the car. It was a reason to come to cities (jobs), but also a reason/means to leave. It was a means of escape… like invaded/abandoned city, it was also seeds of Detroit’s Necropolis, though it took decades to manifest IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Democratized transportation? Detroit: “Paris of the West”

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Why Not Cities? WW2 – Ike in Germany - defense – economic interconnection of metro regions…. But Eisenhower didn’t intend them that way… but rather tangential to cities so they wouldn’t disrupt them. Highways as “renewal” - To clear the negative byproducts of industrial city, cities threw baby out with the bathwater IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Why Not Cities? Eventually, Keynesian highway spending for economic growth became the only model. However, new outer “growth” is cannibalistic, saps life from the core of cities… undermines real choice, and ultimately real estate markets, until the system caves in on itself, literally and figuratively. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX “Liquid” demand as driven by interconnectivity

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Why Not Cities? It is integration of networks and interconnectivity that focuses demand, repositions, and recentralizes it. Restores direct relationship between proximity, value, convenience…. It is the faucet that refills the glass. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Roughly conical nature of Skylines due to degree of connectivity at the center, market response is most value, demand, and therefore supply of space / height Without height regs. Paris, prices extremely high at core due to height restrictions and high degree of interconnectivity/demand Integration of networks = interconnectivy = Demand  Supply

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Why Not Cities? Instead of smooth conical shape, height/density transition is abrupt in Dallas. Illustrative of a system in disorder. We added supply (skyscrapers) while undermining the demand for them, making land at bleeding edge viable for development IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Dallas built skyscrapers at the same time as highways… There is a stark drop-off in height from towers to adjacencies. Added supply while unwittingly gutting demand. Making land further and further from the core viable. Today, they’re mostly empty remnants as downtown dropped down the scale: Memorable Livable Viable -------------------------- Unviable for development

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What’s left of downtown? The city of Dallas, via regional infrastructure, bears the burden of a metro of 6 million, with a tax base of 1 million. Distorted real estate market – Land costs downtown are prohibitively high / demand is too low to make development work… spread too thin… What this means is that to revitalize downtown – city has to subsidize via any means necessary, simply to keep downtown at zombie like state – market is unhealthy… any time the city isn’t flush with cash, downtown stagnates, because the deck is stacked against it. Focusing demand inward keeps historic buildings occupied, makes it marketable to maintain – today it’s only historic registry that has kept Crozier Tech Standing. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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The Inner city freeways Distort the real estate market into favoring regional, car-dependent development. As driving and parking doesn’t pay for itself in full. We overuse free goods. We expect these things to be free, a public good… However, user fees only pay for about 50% of infrastructural costs IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Exsanguination Rising gas prices won’t be a magical panacea resulting in more urbanism. Too locked into suburbia. Exurbs grew exponentially last census while Dallas stagnated. Atlanta housing prices The spatial shift in housing from auto-dependent to one of choice will happen far too slowly to not experience pain at the pump. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Vehicle Miles Travelled dropped 5% during recession despite 267% increase in Gas Prices

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Exsanguination That is, unless we change the prevailing paradigm for how we plan & design infrastructure: Forever outward growth is unsustainable. Left our core cities decrepit, underfunded… Structural collapse and pervasive systemic/economic collapse is inevitable when heavy on infrastructure & light on tax base IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Public services suffer: A Detroit Public School I-35W in Minneapolis

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That is, unless we change the prevailing paradigm for how we plan & design infrastructure: Forever outward growth is not sustainable. Left our core cities decrepit, underfunded… But the persistent problems of industrialized cities are now gone… Dirty manufacturing has either left the country or for cheaper land (or it will). The highways are the last remaining LULU There is no reason why cities can’t be clean, green, safe, healthy, desirable, opportunistic, and profitable IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Even genius needs collaborators & a Market

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Whats left of our downtown? Land use / parking / tax base maps IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Underdeveloped land: surface parking & vacant land Underdeveloped land and tax exempt property

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Human Need: for Social & Economic Exchange If purpose of city is to meet our needs, as efficiently as possible w/ as minimal infrastructural investment as possible (Mumford) And the roads as subset of city should facilitate social & economic exchange, we’re failing at both: Donald Appleyard showed social contacts dropped with increased vehicle traffic Sales Receipts up from $3M to over $10 million in year since Magnolia’s Road Diet IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Human Need: for Safety and Security And most of all unsafe… Fatalities follow highways. Copenhagen has a goal of zero traffic fatalities in a year. Down from 5 in 2010. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX DFW area traffic fatalities, 2001-2009 Downtown Dallas & vicinity

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Due to misaligned priorities (purpose) that don’t meet the needs of neighborhoods has given rise to a people’s rebellion However, it too is not a magic bullet and has its limitations. It works when it promotes cross connectivity, builds a center of gravity. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Davis Better Block calmed traffic Deep Ellum Better block built barriers to crossing

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But bottom up will not be enough… Only public sector can move mountains, but only with citizen pressure Walkable neighborhoods exist only in small pockets in Dallas bounded by arterials and freeways Must focus, not just on the connections within neighborhoods to n’hood centers (like the better block is good at doing), But forging new connections between adjacent neighborhoods One of these is not like the other… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Disparate Walkable Islands of Dallas

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A computer is worthless if it isn’t plugged in… Interconnectivity = opportunity, ability to meet needs… Then interconnectivity is the release valve of demand… Demand = value Value = desirability… which returns investment and density. MUST HAVE interconnectivity. Value and potential increases exponentially the more interconnected a computer/place is. We move the undesirable infrastructure far away – data centers IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Yet modern transportation delivery system favors the regional… Regional infrastructure typically detracts from local connectivity… BUT… value = local connectivity + (or minus) global connectivity If regional and global have a negative effect, you get negative connectivity Negative connectivity = disinvestment For any complex living system, greatest degree of connectivity must be based on proximity – otherwise foot connected to head. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Fair Park has been isolated and fragmented, hence the readily apparent disinvestment that has occurred

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Reasons for favoring regional transportation always favors widening/ more capacity: Inertia, policy (thoroughfare plans prioritize more money to bigger roads), but also flaws in formulae: The 4 blind spots in transportation projections and planning: Fundamental Purpose – move cars? Or connect goods, people, skills, ideas, labor, etc.? Induced Demand – Studies show that more capacity brings more drivers. There is a 1:1 relationship between capacity and Vehicle Miles Travelled. Meaning every doubling of road capacity has led to population driving double the distance. Reduced Demand via density/walkability - model by square footage, but we’ve found 20% reduction in vehicle trips in walkable suburban locations (legacy), 40% in more walkable urban locations (uptown) Rise of the internet – Internet reduces regional trips (online shopping, telecommuting), but won’t reduce simpler, easier, cheaper, more pleasant, walkable trips Dallas has some of the most highway capacity per capita of any major city. If more capacity could solve problem, it would’ve already. Instead, exasperates it. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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So if more capacity only serves to spread people out while adding more drivers… The answer is less capacity. Replaced by neighborhoods. Unleashing the pent-up demand for walkable urbanism: 3% of Americans live in walkable neighborhoods, >40% wish to, including 77% of Millennials IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Working Against the Market Much of downtown sits underdeveloped because land costs are high, but demand for downtown is low Surface parking for suburban commuters is often the highest and best use. Without flipping this upside-down equation we must subsidize infill development for the increased tax base of density, But there is no guarantee that they will be successful. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Key Question: How do we reframe the market to empower it to deliver high quality urban development rather than begging and borrowing for “less bad” development? Diversity map of dallas – 1 dot = 25 people

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City has a number of plans, but none of them reposition the market place. Little is happening without significant city subsidy and partnerships in a variety of forms. City is not in position to help on every development. But, the public sector is land rich. We have to light a fire, not fill a bucket. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Fundamental problem remains edge condition and impossibility of the creation of centers within a critical mass Connections too poor to drive value Noose is just too tight – downtown needs breathing room

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The latest issue regarding the Trinity Toll Road approaches the idea incorrectly. The question is not how we move people, how do we move markets? Since freeways open up viability of land at edge, we have to be Thinking about how to reposition the market in favor of investment in town. The answer is we make proximity once again desirable. So driving is no longer the cheapest, most convenient form of transportation IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX How do I get there?

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Dallas – I’ve got the scalpel, where am I cutting? Other sections of the inner loop are already spoken for or too encumbered. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Dallas – which freeway? Instead of full cost of replacement, use a fraction for demo, open up land for redevelopment, restitch the grid Open up the land for infill of high quality, walkable, urban development IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX By far the largest contiguous area of historic grid unbroken by freeways

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I-345 finished construction in 1973 2000 – 19 cracks repaired 2004 – 87 cracks repaired 2010 – 381 repairs at 166 locations 2011 report suggests adding new columns to reinforce unstable assymetric column pattern Assymmetric column structure partially to blame due to spaghetti beneath it IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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So if more capacity only serves to spread people out, adding more drivers… Maybe the answer is less capacity. Replaced by walkable neighborhoods. Markets and Movement Patterns adapt. Address upside down real estate market (high land cost, low demand) by flooding market with cheap land. Removes a barrier to desirability/investment, increases demand, lowers land costs: market is unleashed. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Study Area IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres

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Study Area IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Existing Underdeveloped Land: 118.29 acres Recaptured Right-of-Way: 63.93 acres

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Study Area IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Existing Underdeveloped Land: 118.29 acres Recaptured Right-of-Way: 63.93 acres Total Developable Area: 186.44 acres

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Study Area IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Existing Underdeveloped Land: 118.29 acres Recaptured Right-of-Way: 63.93 acres Total Developable Area: 186.44 acres Proposed Public Open Space: 7.7 Acres

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Study Area IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Existing Underdeveloped Land: 118.29 acres Recaptured Right-of-Way: 63.93 acres Total Developable Area: 186.44 acres Proposed Public Open Space: 7.7 Acres Projects 17,097 new residential units and over 25,000 new residents And over 10,000 jobs

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Study Area IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Emphasis on small blocks, grid interconnectivity, & public spaces at critical convergence points. Preserves all existing buildings beyond warehouses Celebrates Ross Avenue Swiss Avenue to Arts District Link Can’t simply restitch grid – DART Trivium “Potsdamer Platz” Air Rights & Wormholes Repositioned Important Properties, new front doors for: Latino Cultural Center Crozier Tech Spire Property Billingsley Property Deep Ellum Farmers Market residential

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Advanced Metrics: IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Existing Intersections: 35 Intersections per square Mile: 92 Professor Norman Garrick, Intersection Density Study

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Advanced Metrics: IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Existing Intersections: 35 Intersections per square Mile: 92 Proposed Intersections: 92 Proposed Intersections per Square Mile: 242

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Advanced Metrics: IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX However, like all statistics an abstraction Doesn’t tell whole story Can have intersection density anywhere, But that doesn’t drive demand like convergence of interconnected networks… “centrality,” “high streets”

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Advanced Metrics: “all roads lead to…” Space Syntax: Mathematical model measuring overall spatial integration or interconnectivity Is meant to correlate with land value and pedestrian activity Red means higher value and correlates with ‘High Streets’ IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX London All of Dallas – in progress Downtown and Adjacent Areas

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Advanced Metrics: “all roads lead to…” IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Space Syntax: Raised overall integration value of study area approximately 11.5% With spikes at specific convergence points of Over 345% ** We thought this was exorbitant until we began researching the case studies…

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Advanced Metrics: “all roads lead to…” IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Potential Land Value/integration Heat Map Improved integration values Experienced over a mile away from the study area Red: >150% increase Orange: >50% increase Yellow: >25% increase Green: >10% increase Blue: >5% increase

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Economic Development IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres Four TIFs cover portions of site Highway Demo: 1.395 miles Cost Approx. $55,000,000 (Re)Constructed Grid: Approx. 6.2 miles Cost Approx $11,270,000 Majority of which is covered in TIF We pulled every property info from DCAD - Existing Property (land+Improvement) Value: $132,227,130 Only $19.9M is in improvements Existing Tax Revenue (Per Year): $3,584,832.20

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Economic Development IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Total Study Area: 245 Acres We pulled every property info from DCAD - Existing Property (land+Improvement) Value: $132,227,130 Existing Tax Revenue (Per Year): $3,584,832.20 Projecting 95% Build-out from 2015-2030: Projected New investment: $4,060,663,220 Projected Tax Revenue (Per Year): $110,043,972 One year of Tax Revenue from this plan builds a modern streetcar line from West End to Lower Greenville. A lot of proposed projects suggest enormous windfalls in terms of economic development. But none are immediately adjacent to downtown nor market-based.

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Economic Development: 9 scenarios from Conservative/Conservative to Aggressive/Aggressive Using land value and FAR/proposed density based off local models IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Knox-Henderson: Lower-Scaled/Horizontal Use Mix State-Thomas: Mix of low & Mid Scale CityPlace: Mid & High-Scale/Vertical Stacked We think even our most aggressive estimates might be conservative

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Where does the traffic go? Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term Regional traffic by-passing downtown anyways reroutes to Loop 12, 635, and 190 IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Amazing thing about complex adaptive systems… THEY ADAPT!

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Where does the traffic go? Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term Macro- to Micro-destination movement filters onto local streets. Don’t fear traffic, diffuse it & discipline it. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Peak and Haskell are currently one-way couplets designed to carry upwards of 30,000 vehicles per day. Today, they carry on average 7-10,000. They are badly under capacity and could use the increased energy. Investors and Developers look at traffic counts, the movement and visibility of sites. Spin-off benefit of this plan is potential revitalization of peak/Haskell corridors The state of disrepair on Peak & Haskell.

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Where does the traffic go? Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term The opposite of INDUCED demand, REDUCED Demand. 25% vehicular traffic just goes away. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Los Angeles has been periodically shutting the 405 freeway every weekend for reconstruction. Due to the reaction and awareness of the event and similar freeway closures like it, studies find that the traffic doesn’t simply re-route, but on average 25% just disappears onto different forms of transportation, carpools, or staying at home.

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Where does the traffic go? Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term By creating housing closer to downtown and nearby amenities, combined with local transit options and complete streets, there is lessened demand through greater variety of transportation options and proximity. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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Case Studies – Where else? San Francisco - Embarcadero IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Damaged in 89 loma prieto earthquake Carried 100,000 cars per day Took down 1.2 miles Boulevard now carries 50,000 vehicles per day Trolley carries 20,000 per day Land value up 300% 75% increase in transit commute trips in the impact zone since 1990 54% increase in housing units in impact zone compared with 31% increase in the control zones The number of jobs increased 23% in the impact zone from 1990 – 2005 compared with a 5.5% increase in the control zones

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Case Studies – Where else? San Francisco – Central Expressway / Octavia Boulevard IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Damaged in 89 loma prieto earthquake .8 miles Carried 80,000 per day Replaced with boulevard, promenade, and park Now carries 52,000 per day

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Case Studies – Where else? Portland – Harbor West IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX By 2002: Property values had tripled, increasing faster than anywhere in city by 7% Crime has been reduced significantly Dropping 65% since 1990 versus 16% reduction citywide

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Case Studies – Where else? Milwaukee – Park East Freeway IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Cost of repairing the freeway was going to run over $100 million Demolishing only cost $25 million Carried 54,000 vehicles per day By 2010 census the area added 3400 new residents Boulevard now carries 18,600 vehicles per day

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Case Studies – Where else? Seoul - Chonggye IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX 8.5 mile section of elevated freeway buried a stream Cost $281 million or $33M per mile Number of vehicles entering the area decreased by 43% Air Quality: 21% less tiny airborn particulate matter No2 dropped 20% BETX dropped 25% overall and 65% in some areas Reduced summer temps along corridor 8 degrees 125,000 visitors per weekend day. 50,000 per weekday Added 113,000 new jobs along corridor Long-term benefits expected to approach $25 billion

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Case Studies – Where else? Vancouver – Never had them IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX City of Vancouver refused to allow freeways entering the city Maintained “tangential” non-disruptive relationship

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Case Studies – Where else? Paris – planning to pull all freeways outside the Peripherique NYC – West Side Highway – 53% of vehicular traffic disappeared after 1970s removal. Other cities planning or studying freeway removal: Baltimore, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Seattle… IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX Dallas Freeways to scale with Paris’ innercity freeways

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Now imagine these actually in the City of Dallas rather than in Plano or Addison… All we have to do is move the market. IH 345 Redevelopment Plan Dallas, TX

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