4. The Temperature Record (The Global Warming Debate)

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Brohan, P., Kennedy, J., Harris, I., Tett, S., & Jones, P. (2006). Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research , 111. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., & Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., Karl, T. (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 23947-23963.

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UK Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. (n.d.). Temperature Data (HADCRUT3 and CRUTEMP3). Retrieved January 2009, from Climatic Research Unit: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

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Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., & Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., Karl, T. (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 23947-23963. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Glascoe, J., & Sato, M. (1999). GISS analysis of surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 30997-31002.

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Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., & Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., Karl, T. (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 23947-23963. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Glascoe, J., & Sato, M. (1999). GISS analysis of surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 30997-31002.

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Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., & Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., Karl, T. (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 23947-23963. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Glascoe, J., & Sato, M. (1999). GISS analysis of surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 30997-31002.

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NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

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Hansen, J. (2007, August 16). The Real Deal: Usafruct & the Gorilla. Retrieved June 5, 2008, from Dr. James E. Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20070816_realdeal.pdf

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Hansen, J. (2007, August 16). The Real Deal: Usafruct & the Gorilla. Retrieved June 5, 2008, from Dr. James E. Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20070816_realdeal.pdf

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Hansen, J. (2007, August 16). The Real Deal: Usafruct & the Gorilla. Retrieved June 5, 2008, from Dr. James E. Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20070816_realdeal.pdf

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Hansen, J. (2007, August 16). The Real Deal: Usafruct & the Gorilla. Retrieved June 5, 2008, from Dr. James E. Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20070816_realdeal.pdf

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Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., & Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., Karl, T. (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 23947-23963.

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Christy, J.R, Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B.; Braswell, W.D. (2003, May). Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU-AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 20  613-629. Mears, C. A., & Wentz, F. J. (Accepted). Construction of the RSS V3.2 lower tropospheric temperature dataset from the MSU and AMSU microwave sounders. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology .

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Gentry, P. (2005, August 11). California group’s answer to climate puzzler improves the accuracy of global climate data. Retrieved June 5, 2008, from UAHuntsville: The University of Alabama in Huntsville: http://www.uah.edu/News/newsread.php?newsID=60=

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RSS. (n.d.). RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description . Retrieved January 2009, from Remote Sensing Systems: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html Christy, J.R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B.; Braswell, W.D. (n.d.). uahncdc.lt. Retrieved January 2009, from The National Space Science & Technology Center: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt Archived UAH data here: http://cce.890m.com/temp-records/historical-uah.csv

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The magnitude of each error is approximate.  The "Y2K Error" caused a 0.15 ° warm bias for the lower 48 states, which is less than 2% of the world's surface.  Worldwide, this implies closer to 0.002 ° error, but is rounded up to 0.003 °.  The problem applied to January 2000 through June 2007, or 90 months, for a total of 0.27 "degree-months".  The "RSS 2007 Error" was about 0.15 ° and applied to all of 2007, for a total of 1.8 degree-months.  The RSS-UAH "Step Change" begins in January 1992, and is about 0.05 ° based on the average difference for five years before the step change vs the average difference for five years after the step change.  Through 2008, the time period totals 204 months.  The 2005 UAH "Diurnal Correction" accumulated to 0.09 degrees based on trends from December 1978 to June 2005.  The magnitude of the correction is the area of a triangle 0.09 ° high, and 307 months wide, or 13.8 degree-months

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Christy, J.R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B.; Braswell, W.D. (n.d.). uahncdc.lt. Retrieved January 2009, from The National Space Science & Technology Center: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp RSS. (n.d.). RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description . Retrieved January 2009, from Remote Sensing Systems: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html UK Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. (n.d.). Temperature Data (HADCRUT3 and CRUTEMP3). Retrieved January 2009, from Climatic Research Unit: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

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Rayner, N., Brohan, P., Parker, D., Folland, C., Kennedy, J., Vanicek, M., et al. (2006). Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid nineteenth century: the HadSST2 data set. Journal of Climate , 19 (3), 446-469. Rayner, N., Parker, D., Horton, E., Folland, C., Alexander, L., Rowell, D., et al. (2003). Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research , 108 (D14). Reynolds, R., Rayner, N., Smith, T., Stokes, D., & Wang, W. (2002). An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. Journal of Climate , 1609-1625.

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NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp UK Hadley Centre. (n.d.). Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets. Retrieved January 2009, from Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/

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NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp The map creation tool allows you to create plots with a 250 km smoothing radius.  The anomaly is printed on the image.  To calculate the location of this additional warming by latitude, create 1979 - 2008 trend maps for both 1200 and 250 km smoothing.  Download the “zonal means plot” as a text file.  Take the difference of both plots and weight each by area.

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Mears, C. A., & Wentz, F. J. (Accepted). Construction of the RSS V3.2 lower tropospheric temperature dataset from the MSU and AMSU microwave sounders. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.

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Christy, J.R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B.; Braswell, W.D. (n.d.). uahncdc.lt. Retrieved January 2009, from The National Space Science & Technology Center: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp RSS. (n.d.). RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description . Retrieved January 2009, from Remote Sensing Systems: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html UK Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. (n.d.). Temperature Data (HADCRUT3 and CRUTEMP3). Retrieved January 2009, from Climatic Research Unit: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

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Christy, J.R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B.; Braswell, W.D. (n.d.). uahncdc.lt. Retrieved January 2009, from The National Space Science & Technology Center: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp RSS. (n.d.). RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description . Retrieved January 2009, from Remote Sensing Systems: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html UK Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. (n.d.). Temperature Data (HADCRUT3 and CRUTEMP3). Retrieved January 2009, from Climatic Research Unit: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

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Mauna Loa Observatory. (n.d.). ESLR Global Monitoring Division - Climate. Retrieved June 5, 2008, from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory: http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/about/climate.html

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Wolter, K. (2009, February). Multivariate ENSO Index. Retrieved February, 19 2009, from Earth System Research Laboratory: Physical Sciences Division: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.mei_index.html Wolter, K., & Timlin, M. (1993). Monitoring ENSO in COADS with seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proceedings of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop (pp. 52-57). Norman, OK: NOAA/NMC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim. Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor., Univ. of Oklahoma.

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Christy, J.R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B.; Braswell, W.D. (n.d.). uahncdc.lt. Retrieved January 2009, from The National Space Science & Technology Center: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp RSS. (n.d.). RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description . Retrieved January 2009, from Remote Sensing Systems: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html UK Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. (n.d.). Temperature Data (HADCRUT3 and CRUTEMP3). Retrieved January 2009, from Climatic Research Unit: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

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NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

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NASA GISS. (n.d.). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Retrieved January 2009, from Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

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The temperature record “Don’t trust thermometers” The Global Warming Debate part 4 Click Play Button To Begin Email comments or corrections to cce1976@gmail.com Supporting information located at http://cce.890m.com Click “cc” button for citations

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Two analyses UK Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia “HadCRUT” NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) “GISTEMP” HadCRUT: 1850 – present GISTEMP: 1880 – present

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Temperature anomalies Variation from an arbitrary base period Anomalies from many points are weighted by area and combined

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“It’s only the urban heat island effect!” Measurements from meteorological stations (aka “weather stations” or “surface stations”) Asphalt and buildings absorb heat Civilization produces waste heat But . . . Rural areas are warming Oceans are warming Glaciers, permafrost, ice sheets, and sea ice are melting (see section 10) Sea levels are rising (see section 10) Plants and animals are moving pole ward

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Correcting problems Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) Most obvious problems excluded Time of Observation Bias Station moves Equipment changes

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Accounting for urban warming Several stations combined into one Urban locations adjusted to match rural trends (within <1000 km radius) Amount of warming entirely determined by locations classified as rural!

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“What’s rural?” Rest of world = population within station records

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A (small) victory for the skeptics NOAA corrections to USHCN absent from 2000 on ~0.15 °C warm bias in GISTEMP for lower 48 states “Y2K Error”

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“It was warmer in the ‘30s!”

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The US is not the world!

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1934 vs. 1998

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1934 vs. 1998 Tied!

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Up with satellites. Down with thermometers. University of Alabama in Huntsville – UAH Remote Sensing Systems – RSS Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) “Channels” correspond to thick, overlapping layers Atmosphere does not warm uniformly (see section 7) Interference from surface Readings must be stitched together

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“The satellites are the most accurate thermometers” Lower troposphere Synthetic “channels” (T2LT/TLT) Attempt to remove influence of atmosphere above UAH No warming? 2005 diurnal correction (time of day) 40% more warming UAH vs. RSS Two satellites joined in 1992 – “step change”

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Satellite data have their own problems RSS error ~0.15 °C globally throughout 2007

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Temperature series compared

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Sea Surface Temperatures

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NASA GISS Hadley/CRU Geographic coverage

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Impact of NASA GISS coverage

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RSS Coverage

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The big picture

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“Global warming stopped in 1998!” 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 All warmer than years prior to 1998

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Two major causes of natural variation Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is not the strongest short term influence Nor is solar activity (see section 6) They are: Explosive volcanic eruptions El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

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Explosive volcanic eruptions

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El Niño/Southern Oscillation Warm water in western Pacific Winds blow the water east to South America Warming air and adding moisture Increases global temperatures Changes precipitation patterns

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El Niño/Southern Oscillation “El Niño” “La Niña”

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“It’s cold outside!”

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“It’s cold outside!”

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Choose a method Cold/warm some place in the world! Thermometers Ships and buoys Satellite sea surface temperature (SST) Satellite tropospheric temperature All indicate warming!

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(hyperlink) Return to The Global Warming Debate website

Summary: It may seem trivial to track global temperatures, but it is actually more difficult than it would seem.

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