Scottish Labour Market

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Slide 1

Stephen Boyd, Assistant Secretary, STUC 19 March 2014 The Scottish Labour Market: current state, international comparisons and what the future might hold…

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Current state of the Scottish labour market – or, things to bear in mind on Budget day! The Scottish Labour Market in an international context – the stuff that doesn’t get talked about! What the future might bring.. Content

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An improving picture? Scottish Labour Market, March 2014

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Employment Rate (%), Scotland 2008-December 2013

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ILO unemployment Rate (%), Scotland 2008-December 2013

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Change in rate (%), year to Oct-Dec 2013

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Change in FT and PT jobs since 2008

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JSA claimants, 2008-2014

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Public/Private sector employment 2007-2013

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Public/private sector employment (% of total employment)

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Regional disparities – claimant count

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2009-2013 The unprecedented decline in real wages

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Real change in gross annual wages, April 2009-April 2013

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Nominal (£) & real terms (%) wage growth by income decile, 2009-13

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Nominal Gross weekly wages, % change by income decile 2009-13

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Gross weekly earnings & ave. hours worked by sector, 2013

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International comparisons

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Union Density: public/private, Scotland/England

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Trade union density, 2012 (OECD)

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Collective bargaining coverage, 2007

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TU Density and GINI coefficient, 2010

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Is the Scottish labour market over-regulated?

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Protection of permanent workers against individual and collective dismissals, 2013

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Regulation of temporary contracts, 2013

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Minimum Wages in OECD Countries: % of Median Earnings for FT Workers

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% of FT workers earnings below two-thirds of the gross hourly wage for FT workers, 2011

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Are unemployment benefits too high?

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Net replacement rate: initial stage of unemployment, no children, 2011

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Net replacement rate: family with 2 children qualifying for housing/social assistance (2011)

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Public expenditure (% of GDP) on ALMP, 2010

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The future

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Challenges Recovery embedding negative trends: increase in low wages and insecure work (0 hrs, pay between assignment contracts etc), growing disconnect between productivity growth and wages Further (UK) deregulation Boosting women’s participation Structural change exacerbating inequality? – ‘secular stagnation’, ‘rise of the robots’

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Constitutional debate – visions for the labour market? HMT Scotland Analysis programme: flexible, integrated labour market significant benefit for Scotland White Paper Social Partnership, Nordic model, new institutions (Fair Work Commission, National Convention on Employment and Labour relations)

Summary: Slides for presentation to students at GCU on 19.3.14. Current state of the labour market, some international comparisons and some very brief thoughts on the future

Tags: scotland labour market economy

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